CAN A 16 SEED TAKE DOWN A 1?
Bracketologist Shelby Mast thinks ‘this is a pretty good year for it.’
Is this college basketball’s best shot to reach its holy grail — a No. 16 men’s seed taking out a No. 1 seed? Well, it sure looks like it. “The 1s, to me this year, are just not as strong as they have been in years past,” USA TODAY Sports bracketologist Shelby Mast said. “If it’s going to happen — I mean, the law of averages says it’s going to happen at some point — I think this is a pretty good year for it.”
Just as there has been considerable turnover atop the polls this season, there has been a variety of teams on the top line in mock brackets. In Mast’s most recent projection Thursday, his No. 1 seeds were Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma and Virginia — teams that have combined for 20 losses.
These teams, and the others vying for No. 1 seeds, are very good. But there doesn’t appear to be any elite teams as there were a season ago. An unbeaten Kentucky team is not walking out on that floor.
The key to what would be the biggest upset in sports — a No. 16 seed has not beaten a No. 1 seed since the field expanded to 64 in 1985 — is a strong small-conference champion. Leagues that place only their tournament champion in the NCAA field often see upsets, with their regular-season champ falling in the single-elimination format. But regular-season conference champions that win their league’s automatic NCAA bid tend to be good candidates for an upset pick.
Case in point: No. 16 seed Coastal Carolina in 2014. The Chanticleers led Virginia by 10 points in the first half and carried a lead into halftime before losing by 11.
“That happens, then that story will be over. You killed the king.” Coastal Carolina coach Cliff Ellis, on a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed
“We had a tremendous shot at that,” Coastal Carolina coach Cliff Ellis said this week. “We had the whole world on the table there for a while. They hit a couple of big threes and did what they needed to do, and we didn’t get it.”
Ellis, like most coaches, understands there’s a bit of a formula for big NCAA upsets. In recent years, a handful of No. 15 seeds have taken out No. 2 seeds, and often these teams are veteranladen, perhaps led by an underthe-radar star (such as Lehigh’s C. J. McCollum, now with the Portland Trail Blazers) and have good three-point shooters.
“What you usually have with a No. 1 seed is a team that is a lot more physical than the 16 seed,” Ellis said. “It’s usually a Kansas, North Carolina or Virginia. A lot of strength inside, a lot of power, and usually from those power conferences. Whereas a 16 seed is a team that doesn’t have the strength and the height to match up with a No. 1 seed. Therefore, the three-point shot is the neutralizer. …
“You’ve also got to hope that No. 1 team is having somewhat of an off night.”
Mast pointed to the Atlantic Sun’s North Florida as a potential No. 16 seed that could pull off this kind of upset. The Ospreys are the nation’s seventh-most-efficient team from beyond the arc, according to KenPom.com. But they’d have to win the A-Sun tournament to have a chance at an NCAA upset.
“Everybody loves the David-Goliath story, so that will never come out of the mix until the No. 16 team wins,” Ellis said. “That happens, then that story will be over. You killed the king.”