Pressure eases at the Preakness
Lesser field, shorter race greet Derby winner
Bob Baffert makes it sound so simple. You win the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness sort of falls into place.
“Every time I’ve won the Derby, you come in here and everybody’s floating,” Baffert said Wednesday at Pimlico Race Course. “You’re having a good time, take it easy with the horse, still in celebrating mode. Then it’s almost like, ‘We’re going to take him up there. If he wins, he wins. If he doesn’t, we won the Kentucky Derby.’
“You really don’t think about the Preakness till the day of.”
If the Hall of Fame trainer has come to regard the middle leg of the Triple Crown as part of a package deal determined on the first Saturday in May, his oversimplification is understandable. Each of Baffert’s four Kentucky Derby victories was followed by another trophy presentation at Pimlico, most recently last year with American Pharoah.
Baffert has won six Preaknesses — one short of a record Robert Wyndham Walden set in the 19th century. But his Derby-Preakness doubles appear to be part of a larger pattern, one that portends strong possibilities for trainer Doug O’Neill and Nyquist.
Ten times in the last 19 years the Derby winner also prevailed in the Preakness, the closest correlation among the Triple Crown races. During that same span, the Belmont Stakes has been won by only two Derby winners and just three Preakness winners.
Some of this is a product of modern training methods and the general preference for more time between races. Some of it reflects the popular strategy of saving fresh horses for the Belmont. All of it contributes to the perception that the Preakness is the easiest of the Triple Crown races.
With the withdrawal of Gun Runner, Saturday’s Preakness figures to include only three horses that ran in the Derby and eight that failed to accumulate enough points in prep races to get to the starting gate. Thus, the Preakness field is smaller and less accomplished than that of the Derby and, at 13⁄ miles, the race is 16 220 yards shorter.
Presumably, this plays right into Nyquist’s hooves. Though Baffert has switched horses in the middle of the Triple Crown, from overmatched Mor Spirit to underwhelming Collected, his competitive stance this spring has been about one step short of a concession speech.
“I probably would be surprised if (Nyquist) didn’t win it,” Baffert said.
With an 8-0 record and five Grade I victories, Nyquist’s past performance chart compares favorably with those of many Derby winners. If his reputation does not yet reflect that success, if, as trainer Dale Romans says, “He doesn’t seem to have the same critical acclaim inside the industry that he deserves,” this is more likely a matter of timing.
American Pharoah left some enormous horseshoes to fill. After 37 years between Triple Crown winners, another attempt so soon after the drought ends can feel anticlimactic.
Roger Maris’ season home run record stood for 37 years before Mark McGwire shattered it in 1998. Three years later, when Barry Bonds bettered McGwire’s mark, reaction was relatively muted.
“(McGwire) got everybody back to baseball,” Baffert said. “It’s probably going to be that same effect (in racing). There’s nothing better than a horse going for the Triple Crown.”