Box office for 2016 has been super-skittish
Lots of hits and misses, but it’s on track for a record year
The box office has behaved like any other wildly fluctuating financial institution lately: It’s been a wild ride.
Despite a number of big-name flops (we’re looking at you, Alice
Through the Looking Glass), the movie industry will close the books Thursday on the first half of 2016 with a box office to date that’s on par with 2015’s record $11.1 billion year. Tracking service comScore even tallies 2016 a smidge higher ( by 1.9%) than a year ago: $5.49 billion (through June 26) to last year’s $5.39 billion.
This year “has been very volatile and unpredictable,” says comScore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “People may think we’re way down this year. But we’re not — in fact, we’re slightly ahead. When high-profile movies don’t perform as expected, the perception is that the whole industry is down.”
The first quarter got a major boost from big December releases that continued to dominate deep into the new year. Combined, Star Wars: The Force
Awakens and The Revenant added $467 million to 2016’s tally.
The surprise performance of Ryan Reynolds’ Deadpool, which shot out of the gates in February to take $363.1 million (making it the second-biggest movie thus far in 2016), and Disney’s Zootopia, which sprang to $340.4 million (placing it fourth) with a March opening, added power early on.
“The story of the year is an incredibly strong first quarter, an average second quarter and a slow start to summer compared to the record pace of 2015,” says Patrick Corcoran, chief communications officer of the National Association of Theatre Owners. The second quarter saw a slowdown, despite strong box office for Disney’s live-action The Jungle Book ($358 million) and Captain America: Civil War, which provided a powerful start to summer and ranks as 2016’s biggest movie ($403.9 million).
The season faltered with disappointments such as Warcraft (which made a paltry $44 million domestically in June, though it’s a huge hit overseas) and a series of underperforming, overly expensive sequels that crashed loudly, including last weekend’s Independence Day: Resurgence ($41 million).
“Hollywood realized the hard way that a sequel to a successful film isn’t the guaranteed hit that it was once upon a time,” says Scott Mendelson, box office analyst for Forbes.com.
The summer pace has picked up again with the smash success of Pixar’s sequel Finding Dory (an astounding $286 million in two weekends). But comScore still shows a 5.5% downturn for May and June, from $1.97 billion in 2015 to $1.86 billion. As to whether the box office can fully right itself with highprofile films such as Jason Bourne (in theaters July 29), Suicide Squad (Aug. 5) and Rogue One:
A Star Wars Story (Dec. 16), Dergarabedian says it’s too early to tell.
“It’s a big question mark — last year was an incredible year,” he says. “But I do know you better hang on for the ride. The film box office isn’t for the faint of heart.”