How Iran nuke deal has played out after a year
One year ago Thursday, Iran and world powers reached a historic nuclear accord. Since then, a potential showdown was averted and Iran’s economy is in recovery, but its hard-liners continue to expand their anti-American agenda.
Iran appears to have scaled back its nuclear program and to be abiding by most terms aimed at curbing its nuclear ambitions. Iran’s economy is improving with the lifting of international sanctions and the release of billions in frozen assets.
But so far, the deal has not produced the economic boom Iran was hoping for, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards are growing stronger and more confrontational.
Here are five things that changed:
NUCLEAR THREAT DIMINISHED Under the deal, Iran reduced its stockpile of nuclear fuel and dismantled thousands of machines. Iran destroyed the reactor core in its heavy water reactor, eliminating another path to a bomb. And it accepted international monitoring to ensure compliance.
President Obama pledged that the deal would prevent Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Wendy Sherman, the State Department’s chief negotiator on the agreement, said the deal made the world safer.
Without it, “we might be faced with Iran racing toward a nuclear weapon and a delivery system for that weapon,” Sherman told USA TODAY. “Instead, Iran committed to taking steps to make sure its nuclear program is peaceful.”
State Department officials knew that Iran’s backing for terrorists, human rights abuses and anti-American policies would continue, but without limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities “it would be much worse,” she said.
Some of Iran’s illicit activities involving nuclear weapons and technology continue.
The U.N. Secretary- General Ban Ki Moon said missile tests Iran conducted in March were “not consistent” with the spirit of the nuclear agreement, Reuters reported last week.
In Germany, Iran continued “illegal proliferation-sensitive procurement activities” in the field of nuclear and missile technology, according to Germany’s domestic intelligence service. State Department spokesman John Kirby said last week the U.S. has “no indica- tion” those efforts succeeded.
OIL PRODUCTION UP, KEEPING WORLD PRICES DOWN Iranian oil exports jumped by more than half since January.
The increased supply helped produce a global oil glut and lower prices.
Dozens of other deals to develop Iran’s energy and other industrial sectors stalled because of remaining U.S. sanctions and internal Iranian politics, said Sara Vakhshouri, an analyst at SVB Energy International.
Banks and businesses that use the U.S. financial system are afraid of violating sanctions on Iran for its support of terror groups and human rights violations. And Iran has yet to produce a contract model for about 40 proposed projects that require foreign investment, Vakhshouri said.
ECONOMIC BOOST, BUT DEALS STALL Iran’s economy grew by 0.7% since the deal was signed and is forecast to grow 3.7% in the next year. Inflation is 8%, down from 80% in 2013, said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C.
The benefits mean Iranians were spared an economic collapse, Dubowitz said.
Many Iranians remain frustrated with the pace of recovery, which has been stunted by confusion in world financial institutions about which U.S. sanctions remain and which have been lifted, said Michael O’Hanlon, an analyst at The Brookings Institution.
Iran reached deals with aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing for more than 170 aircraft for its national airlines.
Several Republican members of Congress seek to block the Boeing deal, arguing that Iran has a history of using commercial jets to transport missiles and weapons for terrorists.
REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS GROW STRONGER Areas of the economy that are growing the most are controlled by Iran’s hard-line Revolutionary Guards, Dubowitz said.
The Guards ran most of the smuggling operations required to keep Iran’s economy going.
They now control Iran’s petrochemical, automobile, construction, heavy industry, shipping, aircraft and telecommunications sectors.
USA AND IRAN STILL AT ODDS BUT FIGHTING ON SAME SIDE Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, continues to lead followers in chants of “Death to America.” The State Department has listed Iran as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.
Iran detained two U.S. Navy patrol boats and 10 U.S. sailors in January, when they entered Iranian waters days before sanctions lifted. The U.S. commander was later fired from his job.
Despite ongoing official enmity, U.S. and Iranian military forces have been fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.