ISIL could inflict more damage in Afghanistan
Terrorist presence is small and weakened but still venomous
The weekend suicide bombing in Kabul that killed 80 people raised worries that the Islamic State may be gaining a foothold in Afghanistan even as the U.S.backed government makes headway in its fight against the Taliban.
Saturday’s attack targeting the Shiite Hazaras minority was one of the deadliest attacks in the Afghan capital in more than 10 years. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the bombing that occurred during a peaceful demonstration.
“We might be seeing more of these large-scale attacks,” said Patrick Johnston, a terrorism analyst at the RAND Corp. “That becomes a huge security concern.”
The attack bore the hallmarks of the Islamic State, which launches massive strikes against civilian targets to heighten tensions between Shiites and Sunnis.
The number of Islamic State militants in Afghanistan is relatively small — 1,000 to 1,500 fighters, far fewer than the 25,000 to 35,000 Taliban militants in Afghanistan, according to the U.S.led coalition.
The Islamic State, also known as ISIL or ISIS, has been weakened since it emerged as a threat in Afghanistan last year, the Pentagon has said. The group’s presence is largely limited to Nangarhar province, which borders Pakistan.
The Islamic State has come under attack by coalition-backed security forces and has fought with Taliban militants, who view the Islamic State as a rival.
The Islamic State “has regressed since its initial growth and operational emergence in 2015,” a recent Pentagon report said.
This year, Afghan and U.S. counterterror forces conducted operations against the group in its strongholds in Nangarhar, killing about 200 Islamic State fighters, according to the Pentagon report. Afghan security forces made similar progress against the Taliban this year.
The coalition command said an expected increase in Taliban activity at the end of Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting, had not materialized as Afghan security forces have grown more effective and launched more offensive operations.
Battlefield successes against the Islamic State do not always translate into weakening the terrorist organization. Globally, the Islamic State has proved its ability to launch terror attacks even as it loses territory.
The militants have lost large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria, but the group has been tied to attacks around the world.
It is not clear whether the Islamic State in Afghanistan, where the group has little public support, will be able to pursue a similar strategy of launching attacks as it loses ground.
The Pentagon report said guidance and financial support from the Islamic State’s central leadership has been limited, leaving members of the group in Afghanistan to fend for themselves.