Forecast sees familiar playoff field
First things first: Some team is lurking in the weeds to mess all this up. It always happens.
With that out of the way, we present USA TODAY Sports’ projected win totals for the 2017 Major League Baseball season. For this, our second annual foray into forecasting all 30 teams’ records come Game 162, we’ve made a few tweaks.
A six-person panel of reporters and editors replaces our previous forecasting model, consisting of one well-meaning human. Consequently, there are fewer outliers and the final results look a bit more chalk, for better or worse.
For those of you who enjoyed 2016’s rollicking postseason, good news: Our projected playoff field returns nine of 10 clubs from last year, including the entire National League crew. In the American League, only the Houston Astros crash the proceedings, bumping the Texas Rangers down to a wild-card game.
And fret not if your team is on the wrong side of the playoff line — it doesn’t mean everybody hates you. Among contending teams, the Baltimore Orioles had the widest divergence among our panel — a high of 89 and a low of 75, like a nice day in Sarasota.
So while we can’t offer the thousands of season simulations that more established projections perform, we do put forth the collective efforts of a half-dozen well-informed minds. One of these years, we’ll get it all right.
Our standings, by division:
AL EAST
The Red Sox (94 wins) are the first of our four unanimous division winners, and for good reason. No team in the East can match the potential dominance of the newly created David PriceRick Porcello-Chris Sale triumvirate. Even if a David Ortiz-less offense can’t match its major league-best 836 runs, it shouldn’t matter. … The Blue Jays (87 wins) are equipped for a return to wild-card land, this time driven by a maturing rotation rather than a suffocating lineup. … Count out the Orioles (84 wins) at your own risk. They excel at tweaking the roster throughout the season; wear a helmet on Eutaw Street. … Will the Yankees (80 wins) finish below .500 for the first time since 1992? Their pitching depth will either be a huge asset or epitomize their mediocrity. … Again, the Rays (75 wins) are a mystery. If the young pitching coalesces with the veteran arms, they can be scary.
AL CENTRAL
Our panel loves the Indians (95 wins), projecting them between 92 and 101 victories, and why not? The pennant winners now feature 100% more Edwin Encarnacion. … Then there are the Tigers (85 wins), who had the tiniest variance in our group — between 83 and 86 wins, staying alive to the final weekend one more time. … The Royals (83 wins) have greater motivation than outkicking the always negative projection models — they’re playing to keep together a team loaded with pending free agents. … Seems like ages ago when the White Sox (68 wins) started out 23-10 last year. At least a fourth-place finish this year will come with both eyes on the future. … The Twins (66 wins) get no favors playing in a top-heavy division. A pitching staff with a major league-worst 5.08 ERA returns mostly intact.
AL WEST
The Astros (90 wins) and Rangers (89) will do their best to detract from football season in September by staging a tightly contested pennant race. Five of our six panelists say Astros, by a field goal. … The Mariners (85 wins) likely won’t confuse activity for achievement anytime soon. General manager Jerry Dipoto has made 36 trades in two years and 11 this offseason. For all this, they win one fewer game than in 2016? … The Angels (74 wins) are held together by Mike Trout and platelet-rich plasma injections for their pitching staff. You can definitely bank on one of those coming through. … The Athletics (70 wins) again are a polarizing bunch, falling anywhere from 65 to 78 wins. That probably means they’re going to win the division.
NL EAST
Despite finishing 1-2 the last two years, not much of a rivalry has developed between the Nation
als (90 wins) and Mets (89). Perhaps a race that comes down to the final weekend will change that. … The Marlins (75 wins) can be forgiven if their minds wander this year. Jose Fernandez remains irreplaceable, in every way. … The Phillies (74 wins) are coming on quickly. Is .500 a possibility? One of our panelists thinks so … The Braves (70 wins) have a new ballpark and more household names — R.A. Dickey, back in SEC country — on the field, but will still take their licks.
NL CENTRAL
So this is how it is now — a 99win season is the expectation for the Cubs. And why not? As long as their 1-2-3 of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks stays healthy, they’re deep enough to absorb body blows elsewhere. … Can the Cardinals (88 wins) turn the tables on the Cubs by stealing an All-Star outfielder and winning the division? Not quite, but Dexter Fowler is just about a perfect fit in St. Louis … Has the window closed in Pittsburgh? The Pirates (81 wins) hope not, but a winter of failed attempts to move their franchise player seems to portend a season of potentially bad vibes … The Brew
ers (72 wins) surprised us with a decent season amid tanking accusations. Then they cut loose 41home run man Chris Carter and replaced him with Eric Thames. Progress? … The Reds (66 wins) run their pitching staff more like a line change in hockey — three in, three out. They’re amassing quality depth, but it’s still a ways from coming together.
NL WEST
It actually rained this winter in California, proving anything is possible. Nonetheless, a fourth consecutive 1-2 finish for the
Dodgers (92 wins) and Giants (89 wins) seems inevitable. The Dodgers won 91 games while getting just 149 innings from Clayton Kershaw. In his absence, they developed the depth to roll potentially eight deep in the rotation this year. Mark Melancon seems to age better than Bruce Bochy’s finest red wines; the Giants are betting $62 million that continues. … Trendy Team Alert: The Rockies (81 wins) are potential darlings this year, with a serviceable pitching staff, decent human and versatile slugger Ian Desmond and a solid manager in Bud Black. They, too, split our panel in half and ultimately landed at .500. It certainly won’t be boring in Denver. … Just how far back did the Tony La Russa-led regime set back the Diamond
backs (74 wins)? The digging out begins anew, but healthy A.J. Pollock and new digs for Taijuan Walker probably won’t change the landscape much. … Speaking of teardowns, the Padres (65 wins) have an emerging core of position player prospects but a rotation better suited for 2012 — Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill. It’s going to take awhile.