WELCOME TO MARCH
Monmouth could be show-stealer
With Selection Sunday approaching, Florida is among dark horse Final Four candidates
The calendar has turned to March, which means the madness is here again — if it hadn’t started already.
Eleven days from Selection Sunday, there are ample story lines from teams hanging on the NCAA tournament bubble to the battle for seeding in bracketology projections. As of now, Kansas and Villanova have all but locked up top seeds, and North Carolina and Oregon will be tough to undo at the No. 1 line. Baylor, fresh off a win against West Virginia, is also in the mix.
Meanwhile, preseason No. 1 Duke has underachieved and been saddled with injuries — most recently to Grayson Allen and Amile Jefferson. And fellow blue bloods Kentucky and UCLA are hitting their strides as title contenders.
But these story lines are all appetizers for the main course. Welcome to March (results/records are through Monday).
FIVE SLEEPER TEAMS WITH MARCH MOMENTUM
Minnesota (22-7, 10-6 Big Ten): After losing five in a row in January and floating around the NCAA tournament bubble, the Gophers went 7-0 in February. That streak hasn’t put Richard Pitino’s team in the Top 25, but there’s still a chance — if Purdue and Wisconsin buckle — that the Gophers win a share of the Big Ten or perhaps take the weaker-than-usual conference’s best seed in the Dance. Big man Reggie Lynch had 11 blocks in Minnesota’s win vs. Penn State.
Michigan (19-10, 9-7 Big Ten): Another Big Ten team getting hot and playing itself off the bubble, the Wolverines have won five of six and are playing fantastic basketball. In their latest win in which they ended league leader Purdue’s six-game winning streak, Michigan looked like the better team, containing national player of the year candidate Caleb Swanigan.
Southern Methodist (25-4, 15-1 American Athletic): With the Larry Brown era in the rearview mirror, Tim Jankovich has the Mustangs on a 12-game winning streak and poised to win the AAC. SMU essentially starts five guards and uses an unconventional style that makes it a dangerous team for tournament opponents.
Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-7 Big 12): Entering Tuesday, new coach Brad Underwood’s Cowboys had won 10 of 12 to help negate a 0-5 start in Big 12 play. Jawun Evans averages 18.2 points and 6.0 assists per game.
Miami (Fla.) (20-9, 10-7 Atlantic Coast): Before Monday’s loss to Virginia Tech, Miami was rolling — having won six of seven to get off the bubble — in an ACC that has featured 13 of 15 teams in consideration for tournament bids. By beating Virginia and Duke, the Hurricanes showed they can compete with anyone. That notion was also punctuated in a 15-point win against North Carolina on Jan. 28.
FIVE BUBBLE TEAMS THAT COULD BUST YOUR BRACKET
Virginia Tech (21-8, 10-7
ACC): Monday’s win against Miami put Virginia Tech on the right side of the bubble, and expect Buzz Williams’ energetic bunch to make noise in the NCAAs. Winners of five of six, the Hokies were forced to regroup after double-digit scorer Chris Clarke was lost for the season. This veteran group has remained hungry all season.
Wichita State (27-4, 17-1 Missouri Valley): Thanks to a relatively weak bubble this year, Wichita State is in the mix to notch an at-large bid should it fall in the MVC tournament to co-regular-season champion Illinois State. Gregg Marshall has turned an inexperienced roster into a deep lineup that buys into the Shockers’ signature brand of toughness and wears teams down. Lately, Wichita State has been clobbering opponents, beating Southern Illinois by 42, Illinois State by 41 and Northern Iowa by 29. Remember, the Wichita State team that went to the Final Four in 2013 wasn’t on anyone’s radar, like this team is.
Vanderbilt (16-13, 9-7 Southeastern): Coach Bryce Drew has gotten the Commodores to peak heading into March. They’ve won eight of 11, including an impressive road win at Florida and most recently a 29point shellacking of Mississippi State. Odds are the committee favors Vanderbilt, considering it owns the country’s best non-conference strength of schedule.
Northwestern Wildcats (20-9, 9-7 Big Ten): The story line if the Wildcats get into the NCAA tournament for the first time will be Chicago Cubs-esque. But what about afterward? History aside, Chris Collins can coach, and his defensive-minded team, led by crafty point guard Bryant McIntosh, could easily get hot and upset an elite team.
Middle Tennessee State (25-4, 15-1 Conference USA): This team was the darling of last year’s tournament when it stunned Michigan State as a No. 15 seed. But this year, the Blue Raiders have a résumé worthy of an at-large bid. And don’t expect this midmajor to necessarily be an underdog this time as a likely No. 11 seed. Among the returners from last year’s Cinderella is marksmen Giddy Potts.
FIVE MIDMAJOR TEAMS THAT COULD BECOME MARCH DARLINGS
Monmouth (26-5, 18-2 Metro Atlantic Athletic): Perhaps last March’s biggest snub, Monmouth surely has the firepower as a likely No. 13 seed to do damage in the tournament. Justin Robinson, a spark plug 5-8 point guard, again steers the ship.
North Carolina-Wilmington (26-5, 15-3 Colonial Athletic Association): Thanks to a top-40 Rating Percentage Index (RPI), if North Carolina-Wilmington wins the Colonial tournament as expected, it will notch a No. 12 seed. Guard C.J. Bryce can fill it up. Last year this team nearly knocked off Duke in the
first round. Kevin Keatts’ team is even better this season, and pending a deep March run, look for Keatts’ name to to pop up for the North Carolina State coaching vacancy. Vermont (26-5, 16-0 America East): Vermont became the first America East team to go unbeaten in the regular season in conference. This team doesn’t have a clear-cut star but plays with a synergy that’s formidable for March success.
Princeton (19-6, 12-0 Ivy League): Princeton didn’t fare so well in non-conference action but has won 15 in a row and is unbeaten in the Ivy League. The Tigers clinched the conference title, but they’ll need to win a tournament this year, unlike in previous seasons when the regular-season winner got the at-large bid.
Bucknell (23-8, 15-3 Patriot League): The Bison haven’t won the Patriot tournament since 2013 but have the moxie to get back to the NCAA tournament behind conference player of the year Nana Foulland. And coach Nathan Davis has a 12-man rotation that bodes well this time of year.
FIVE POISED TO BECOME CINDERELLA STARS
Kevin Hervey, Texas-Arlington (23-6, 13-3 Sun Belt): The Mavericks, who sport an impressive RPI of 25, look poised to earn their second NCAA tournament bid, and much of the credit goes to the 6-9 forward who averages 17.0 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Hervey had 28 points and 13 rebounds in a win against Georgia Southern.
Paris Lee, Illinois State (25-5, 17-1 MVC): The heart and soul of the Redbirds, Lee (13.0 points, 5.1 assists, 2.0 steals per game) is one of the nation’s best midmajor point guards.
Alec Peters, Valparaiso (24-7, 14-4 Horizon League): The versatile 6-9 forward is the centerpiece for the Crusaders, favorites to win the Horizon, and likely has an NBA future. He’s among national leaders in scoring with an average of 23 points per game, complemented by 10.1 rebounds. A stress reaction in his leg poses concern for his health.
Keon Johnson, Winthrop (23-6, 15-3 Big South): The speedy 5-7 guard averages 21.8 points and scored 38 in an overtime win against power-conference foe Illinois. In early February, he totaled 79 points in back-to-back games.
Evan Bradds, Belmont (22-5, 15-1 Ohio Valley): The veteran forward averages 20.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game for the Bruins, favorites to win the OVC.
THREE DARK-HORSE FINAL FOUR TEAMS
Butler (23-6, 12-5 Big East): This team beat Villanova twice and is as dangerous as it gets when it comes to a No. 3 or No. 4 seed. Kelan Martin (16 points, 5.8 rebounds per game) paces this veteran team under coach Chris Holtmann.
Florida (23-6, 13-3 SEC): Coach Mike White has gotten Florida back to elite status and near the top of the SEC, yet Florida isn’t exactly a team on anyone’s radar to go to Phoenix, especially with big man John Egbunu out for the season. But the ingredients are there for a team that had won 10 in a row before falling at Kentucky last weekend after previously hammering the Wildcats by 22 points.
Iowa State (19-9, 11-5 Big 12): Iowa State has beaten Baylor and Kansas and subtly surged to second place in the Big 12 standings. Not bad for a team on the bubble not long ago. Steve Prohm has the Cyclones rolling, having won five in a row, which feels like it should count for more in the Big 12. Senior point guard Monte Morris (16.3 points, 6.0 assists per game) gives them a chance to beat anybody.