Stumble no surprise
Long-dominant Blackhawks couldn’t beat system forever, NHL columnist Kevin Allen writes,
Today’s NHL playoff wins must always be paid for with tomorrow’s playoff losses.
That’s the simplest explanation for why the Chicago Blackhawks could be eliminated in the first round for the second consecutive season. They trail 3-0 going into Thursday’s Game 4 against the Nashville Predators in Nashville. They lost in seven games to the St. Louis Blues last season.
Since 2010, the Blackhawks have won 67 playoff games and three Stanley Cup titles.
The Blackhawks, who finished with a Western Conference-high 109 points, are the model franchise of the salary cap era. General manager Stan Bowman has done a remarkable job of keeping this team a cut above his competitors in a system designed to spread the talent evenly among all of the teams.
But it was inevitable that the Blackhawks would pay a price for their success, and the cost was an erosion of their depth of skill. That has become apparent against the Predators.
When a team has sustained success, three events occur that cause problems in the future. Top players grow older. Their salaries and salary cap hit grow with their success. Finally, the team doesn’t draft high and often compounds the problem by including draft picks in trades designed to remain competitive.
The Blackhawks’ top players have grown expensive. When Chicago won the Cup in 2010, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook had a total cap hit of about $9.2 million. That was 16.2% of the NHL’s salary cap that season. Today, those five players have a combined cap hit of about $37.5 million. That’s 51.3% of today’s $73 million cap. If you add in Marian Hossa’s $5.275 million and Corey Crawford’s $6 million, those seven players take up 66.7% of the team’s cap space.
The Blackhawks didn’t have a first-round pick in the 2015 and 2016 drafts and haven’t drafted higher than 18th in the first round since 2008.
The Blackhawks’ core group has been so strong and Bowman shrewd enough in his maneuvering that they have managed to stay among the top teams.
But it is clear that they are weaker now. The Blackhawks seem worn down, less danger- ous, not as menacing.
Bowman has been a magician with his ability to find impact players and fit them under the cap. The 2015 signing of free agent Artemi Panarin was his best trick, as Panarin’s cap hit was $812,500 through this season. Panarin has scored 61 regular-season goals over his first two NHL seasons.
But it’s becoming harder to freshen up the Chicago act. Nick Schmaltz, Ryan Hartman and Tanner Kero are playing in their first postseason. But Hossa is 38, and Keith is 33. The Blackhawks are playing with four defensemen 31 or older. Hjalmarsson turns 30 in June.
Watching the Blackhawks surrender a two-goal lead in Game 3 against the Predators seems telling. Are they growing stale?
Maybe this Chicago group has a miracle in it, but even if the Blackhawks come back in the series, they will face trouble ahead.
The more the Blackhawks won, the more they had to pay their players. That’s not a criticism. That’s the reality of professional sports. There’s always a cost for success. The Blackhawks seem to be paying their tab now.