Like Model T, self-drivers will change way we live, group says
The vehicles soon will seem so normal that we abandon car ownership, says think tank RethinkX
So if you’re skeptical or nervous about the coming age of self-driving cars, consider this incentive: A $20 Uber or Lyft fare could be slashed to $2.
Better yet, it might even be free if the ride provider is, say, a Starbucks autonomous ride-sharing van that’s covering the cost of your 40-cent commute by selling you a pricey latte.
And this isn’t a vision of the future for today’s toddlers, but likely to happen within a decade.
Those are just some of the provocative predictions in the first report out Thursday from RethinkX, an independent think tank focusing on technology’s impact on transportation, energy, finance and health care.
According to RethinkX, while self-driving vehicles may still seem like a science fair project to many, the technology soon will become so culturally ubiquitous that it will lead to the abandonment of car ownership, a $1 trillion boost in disposable income and a “catastrophic” shift for the oil industry and driver economy.
“Mainstream talk about selfdriving cars suggests the big transformation could still be decades out, but it’s time to adjust our thinking,” says Tony Seba, coauthor with James Arbib of “Rethinking Transportation 20202030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries.”
Tech companies such as Alphabet and automakers such as Ford are targeting 2021 for the first commercial rollout of self-driving ride-hailing fleets.
That debut is most likely to happen in select cities where both lawmakers and the public are willing to embrace such a radical shift, and experts believe a national embrace of autonomous vehicles will be slow in coming.
In contrast, RethinkX is predicting an overnight sensation that will be no less transformative than the Model T’s erasure of the horse and buggy, the printing press’ impact on literacy and one modern tech gadget’s remaking of communication.
“When the iPhone came out in 2007, many wondered who would spend hundreds on something called a smartphone, and now we can’t imagine our lives without them,” says Seba, author of Solar
Trillions and Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation.
Among the study’s views of the mobility scene by 2027, or before: 95% of U.S. passenger miles will be served by autonomous electric vehicles owned by companies providing Transportation as a Service (TaaS). 60% of vehicles on the road will be dedicated to that transportation. The average household will pocket $5,600 a year currently allocated to gas-powered car ownership by switching to autonomous electric vehicles services.
Not that the view ahead is rosy for all. Disruption looms on many fronts, the report’s authors say.
Among those hardest hit will be the millions of Americans who drive for a living, whether they’re ride-hailing drivers or truckers. And automakers and related industries — dealerships, auto parts stores — will suffer or shutter.
“Mainstream talk ... suggests the big transformation could still be decades out, but it’s time to adjust our thinking.” Tony Seba, co-author of “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030”