U.S.-EUROPE ALLIANCE IS IN CRISIS
If Trump sticks to his role as a nationalist provocateur, America will pay a steep price
The 70th anniversary of the Marshall Plan this week should be a celebration of the trans-Atlantic alliance — the most powerful and successful in modern history. Secretary of State George Marshall’s Harvard commencement speech on June 5, 1947, set in motion the historic U.S. aid program to revive Europe’s shattered economies. It also set the stage for the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Common Market and the European Union.
Instead of celebrating, however, America and Europe are experiencing their most significant crisis in decades. President Trump’s recent visit to NATO and the EU exposed deep ideological divisions and a widening gulf of trust. Last weekend’s terrorist attacks in London had the same effect. Trump criticized London Mayor Sadiq Khan for telling citizens not to be alarmed by the attacks, when Khan actually said they should not be alarmed by a heavy police presence. Trump’s tweets did not go over well in stoic Britain, where the World War II maxim, “keep calm and carry on,” still holds.
FROM TRADE TO CLIMATE
The policy differences alone are profound. European leaders want a historic free trade agreement with America, but Trump’s nationalist economic strategy led him to reject it. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is determined to maintain tough EU and U.S. sanctions on Russia over its occupation of Ukraine. Trump appears more interested in a rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The chasm is deepest and most emotional on climate change. Trump announced America will pull out of the historic 2015 Paris Agreement; European citizens and their governments consider it an urgent priority.
When I served as U.S. ambassador to NATO, America had a bruising argument with France and Germany over the Iraq War in 2003. We buried the hatchet by joining forces in Afghanistan and negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran. We knew the NATO alliance was worth preserving. Trump has downplayed the importance of those longstanding ties.
Trump’s ambivalence about NATO and skepticism about the EU are seen by European leaders as an open break with 70 years of U.S. commitment to the continent. The heart of the problem is Trump’s view of Europe, and Ger- many in particular, as an economic competitor rather than a strategic partner.
If Trump sticks to this course, there will be real costs for America. Europe remains our leading trade partner and the most important investor in the U.S. economy. The 27 European members of NATO remain the largest group of U.S. allies in the world.
USA NEEDS NATO
On nearly every global priority, Europe is a key partner. We need the United Kingdom, France and Germany to persuade Iran to adhere to the 2015 nuclear deal. Trump may soon ask Europe to contribute more troops to NATO’s Afghan mission. The U.S. fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria will be seriously undermined without British and French support. America needs NATO allies to hold the line against Putin’s territorial ambitions in Eastern Europe.
All this argues for a White House reassessment of its dramatic distancing from Europe. Trump was right to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf States on his first foreign trip. But our alliance with Europe is far more important.
To be fair, Trump is also right to ask the allies to step more resolutely into the fight against ISIS. He has the U.S. public behind him in asking Germany and Europe to increase defense spending. All modern U.S. presidents have insisted NATO’s European members should meet the alliance defense spending standard of 2% of gross domestic product.
But Trump’s bull-in-a-china-shop approach has backfired. He would do better to push the allies in private but acknowledge publicly that the majority have increased defense spending after Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. All, including Germany, have pledged to reach the 2% target by 2024.
At a time of Russian assertiveness in Eastern Europe and instability in the Middle East, America needs its European allies in NATO more than ever. That is why cooler heads must steer the impulsive, inexperienced Trump back to an effective relationship with NATO and the EU.
Otherwise, Trump’s bumbling Europe strategy could turn into one of the worst foreign policy failures of the post-World War II era.