TRUMP COULD SNIP SOME OBAMA TIES WITH CUBA
Experts say benefits make it unlikely he’ll ‘terminate’ relations
President Trump probably will fulfill a campaign promise this month by curbing some of the ties with Cuba that President Obama adopted when he made his historic overture to the communist island.
Trump threatened during campaign stops in the CubanAmerican enclave of Miami to cut ties with Cuba. After winning the election, he tweeted that he might “terminate” Obama’s renewal of diplomatic relations with Cuba, which ended more than 50 years of estrangement that began during the Cold War.
Cuban experts said Trump has backed off that stance, noting he has been preoccupied with other issues, plus a broad collection of American businesses have benefited from the opening.
“All the initial signs were that he was going to reverse everything,” said Frank Mora, a Defense Department official under Obama and now director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University in Miami. “But (Trump) doesn’t really care about Cuba. There’s going to be much more symbolism in the kinds of changes they will announce than anything substantive.”
A report released Thursday by Engage Cuba, a Washingtonbased group, estimated that American companies would lose $6.6 billion and more than 12,000 U.S. jobs over Trump’s first term if he reversed course.
Opponents of Obama’s policy said it has done nothing to change Cuba’s communist system and repression. The Havanabased Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation said the government has detained more than 400 political prisoners each month this year, a drop from 2016 but a reminder of Cubans’ limited rights.
Trump is likely to announce the changes this month, possibly during a visit to Miami. Here are some aspects of Obama’s opening with Cuba that could be affected: FLIGHTS AND CRUISES One of the most tangible changes under Obama was re-establishing direct commercial flights between the Cold War foes. Americans traveling to Cuba under one of 12 categories approved by the U.S. government can hop online and book a flight.
The demand has not been as high as expected, prompting several airlines to scale back their flights and three — Spirit Airlines, Frontier and Silver Airways — to cancel all their Cuba flights. Pedro Freyre, an attorney with the Akerman law firm who brokered multiple deals between U.S. companies and Cuba, said Trump is unlikely to cancel limited runs by U.S.-based airlines. “The invisible hand of the market is already working its magic,” Freyre said.
Cruise operators continue pushing ahead. Norwegian Cruise Line, Carnival and Royal Caribbean Cruises announced more than 200 sailings to the island in the next three years, according to the New York-based U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. Few expect those to be limited, since passengers mostly spend their nights on the American cruise ships and aren’t handing money to Cuban-owned hotels. HOTELS One likely area for change is the ability of U.S.-owned companies to manage hotels in Cuba.
Starwood Hotels & Resorts signed a deal with the Cuban government to operate — but not own — three landmark hotels in Havana. That arrangement angered Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.; Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla.; and other Cuban Americans because the deal made Starwood partners with the Cuban military, the largest hotel operator on the island.
“If the Americans want to deal with hotels in Cuba, the administration ought to find a way in which those hotels function as foreign hotels, as they do in other countries,” said Frank Calzon, executive director of the Center for a Free Cuba and one of the loudest critics of Obama’s Cuba policies. “The idea is not to finance the Cuban military.”
Airbnb could survive. The San Francisco-based company was one of the first to take advantage of the diplomatic opening with Cuba and helps more than 8,000 Cubans rent their homes to tourists. Those visits mostly benefit Cuban homeowners, so Trump could allow that relationship to continue. CIGARS AND RUM One of the most popular changes under Obama was the free flow of Cuba’s legendary rum and cigars.
His administration allowed Americans to return from Cuba with up to $100 worth of the items. That was expanded so people traveling anywhere in the world can come back to the USA with as many bottles and boxes as they wanted, as long as the items were for personal use.
Those changes are in jeopardy because the island’s rum and cigar companies are state-owned, meaning most profits go to the Cuban government. Even supporters of more trade and travel with Cuba said allowing rum and cigars will be shut down.
“That one is likely to be reversed,” Freyre said. “If I were to be in favor of any changes, which I’m not, I would be in favor of that one. It’s just so frivolous.”