Missile defense system effective but not foolproof
U.S. military ready to use ‘full range’ of tools
WASHINGTON If North Korea fires a missile toward Guam, as it threatened, there is a good chance that the U.S. military or an ally will be able to shoot it down.
The United States and allies in the Pacific have an effective, though not foolproof, defense against a North Korean missile launch in the region, analysts said.
“We have an important but limited degree of protection,” said Thomas Karako, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Nobody thinks that this is a perfect shield.”
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Monday that if a missile were on track to hit Guam, “we will take it out.” He warned that if North Korea fired a missile at the USA, “it could escalate into war very quickly.”
Last week, President Trump vowed “fire and fury like the world has never seen” if North Korea followed through on its threats and missile tests in defiance of international law.
The comments came amid growing tensions between Trump and Kim Jong Un’s regime, which said it was preparing a plan to launch four missiles aimed off the coast of Guam, a U.S. territory and home to about 7,000 American military personnel.
The Trump administration sought to soften the rhetoric later, saying war was not imminent. Still, Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned during a visit to South Korea on Monday that the United States is ready to use the “full range” of its military capabilities to defend itself and its allies against North Korea.
The defenses include the ability to counter the Hwasong-12, an intermediate-range missile that can travel about 2,800 miles and was cited by North Korea in its threat to target Guam, which is about 2,100 miles away.
A missile of that range would be easier to intercept than a longrange intercontinental ballistic missile, which travels faster and spends much of its travel time outside the Earth’s atmosphere.
Missile experts do not believe North Korea has developed decoy missiles designed to throw interceptors off the track, said Ian Williams, another analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Though U.S. missile defense systems have proved reliable in tests, they could be overwhelmed if an adversary launched multiple missiles at the same time.
Here are some of the key components of the U.S. missile defense system:
THAAD. The United States deployed THAAD, or the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, systems in South Korea and Guam. It is designed to intercept a warhead as it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere and is in the last stages of its flight. THAAD is an accurate system that has passed all 15 tests it has undergone.
AEGIS. The Aegis ballistic missile defense system is deployed on U.S. warships and is designed to intercept short- and intermediate-range missiles, such as the Hwasong-12. The ballistic defense systems are aboard 33 Navy ships, according to the Missile Defense Agency.
The system intercepts missiles “midcourse” — as the warhead flies above the Earth’s atmosphere. If the Aegis system misses, the THAAD can hit the missile after it re-enters the atmosphere.
The Aegis system has performed well in tests, said Michaela Dodge, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation.
Patriot. Patriot batteries are designed for short-range attacks and were used during the Persian Gulf War in 1990-91 against Iraq’s Scud missiles.
More recently, they have performed well for Saudi Arabia and its allies by intercepting Iranian-supplied Scuds fired from Yemen.
The Patriot s ystem is used by 13 countries, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
In response to the North Korea threat last week, Japan began moving Patriot units to Hiroshima, Kochi, Shimane and Ehime, according to the Associated Press. The moves are aimed at being able to intercept debris if North Korean missiles fly overhead. uGround- based defense
systems. These are interceptors designed to protect the U.S. mainland from missile threats, which have grown more urgent since North Korea developed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching U.S. cities.
The U.S. military has 36 interceptors in silos in California and Alaska and an additional eight will be deployed by the end of this year to help defend against the threat from North Korea.
The interceptors have had mixed results in tests, though recent demonstrations have been successful in hitting their targets.
“We have an important but limited degree of protection. Nobody thinks that this is a perfect shield.”
Thomas Karako, Center for Strategic and International Studies