So far, Trump’s economy looks a lot like Obama’s

On Monday, President Trump prefaced his scripted comments on racism with a commercial for the economy. Under his administration, the president said, the stock market is at record highs, unemployment is at a 16-year low, businesses are optimistic, and more than 1 million jobs have been created.

True enough. But it’s worth keeping in mind that so far at least, the Trump economy looks a lot like the Obama economy:

In the last six months of the Obama administration, an average of 180,667 jobs were created each month. In the first six months of the Trump administration, the average was 179,000.

In the final two quarters of the Obama administration, the economy grew by 3.5% and 2.1%. In the first two quarters of the Trump administration, it grew by

1.2% and 2.6%. Average wage growth was

2.68% in the final six months under President Obama and 2.58% in the early months of Trump.

In most contexts, this continuity would be unremarkable. But Trump now finds himself facing the same criticism that was leveled against Obama: The numbers should be going up faster.

For Trump, the recent growth numbers — which often elicit labels such as modest, tepid and measured — pose a particular problem. Few candidates, if any, have ever been so explicit in their promises and so scathing in their critique of the job done by their predecessors.

On the campaign trail, Trump promised 25 million new jobs over the next decade and a sizzling growth rate of 4%. One would be hard pressed to find a reputable economist or business leader who thinks that anything close to that is possible.

To be sure, Trump has been in office for a little more than half a year, and much of his agenda is stalled.

In political terms, though, he “owns” the economy.

The reality is that presidents generally get more credit than they deserve when the economy is doing well, and more blame than they deserve when it isn’t. Wage and economic growth are held down by forces largely beyond the control of politicians.

Wage growth is hurt by global competition and rapid technological innovation that has replaced workers with computers and robots. And overall economic growth has been dragged down by a government that has become a mechanism for taxing (and borrowing from) working Americans to pay for rapidly accelerating retirement and health care costs.

Trump’s agenda of deregulation and tax reform, even if it does get through Congress, would likely only have a modest effect. And then there’s the possibility of a recession. The current expansion is the second longest in history, and would become the longest if no recession happens before July 2019.

And how about the stock market? Here Trump has more reason to crow, at least for the moment. The S&P 500 was up a healthy 8.8% during his first six months, partly because of anticipation of a more business-friendly environment in Washington. But as previous presidents have learned, Wall Street can be a fickle friend, with bull markets turning to bears in a flash.