Yes, this hurricane season is unusually awful
As Maria blusters, there are still two more months to go
The already-catastrophic 2017 hurricane season shows no signs of letting up: Hurricane Maria is roaring through some of the same Caribbean islands ravaged by Irma, just as Hurricane Jose stirs up trouble along the U.S. East Coast.
And we still have more than two months to go.
The ferocity of the Atlantic storm season isn’t just in your imagination. Thanks primarily to monsters such as Harvey and Irma, it’s one of the worst in years by various meteorological standards.
For example: The hurricanes that have formed this year — seven — are about double the average to date, as is the energy generated by the storms. This is a statistic known as “Accumulated Cyclone Energy,” and the number in 2017 is the highest it’s been since 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina hit, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
There have been 30 days this year in which hurricanes have spun in the Atlantic — which is also more than double the average and the most since 2004, Klotzbach said.
Another record set in 2017: For the first year in hurricane history, which dates to 1851, two Category 4 hurricanes (Harvey and Irma) slammed into the USA the same year.
In fact, there have been four major (Category 3 and above) hurricanes this season — the
first time since 2010 there have been four by Sept. 18, according to Klotzbach.
The average as of this date is less than two.
One of the reasons for the active season is probably a lack of dust blowing across the Atlantic from Africa, which tends to have a drying effect on developing storms, according to AccuWeather. The lack of an El Niño — and its shearing winds that can tear apart nascent storms — also plays a role.
As bad as it’s been, some of this season’s intensity is really just a blast from the past.
Irma was “reminiscent of the great hurricanes that unleashed their fury on Florida in the first seven decades of the 20th century ... and then for the most part disappeared,” Weather Channel meteorologist Bryan Norcross said before the storm hit.
“Mother Nature’s hurricaneoutput cycle has its ups and downs,” he said, “and a lull came along in the 1970s, ’80s, and early 1990s — Hurricanes Frederic, Hugo and Andrew notwithstanding.”
“The net result was exponential growth along the coastline — a construction frenzy, mostly without hurricanes in mind.” Bryan Norcross, meteorologist
Especially in typically hurricane-prone states such as Florida, a race to build along the shore went unfettered.
Americans became older, richer and more conspicuous consumers, Norcross said. “The net result was exponential growth along the coastline — a construction frenzy, mostly without hurricanes in mind. Add in the expensive cars and gadgets of modern life, and the damage potential has skyrocketed.”
Beyond whatever destruction Maria or Jose might wreak, there are still concerns about the rest of the season.
A large area of high pressure centered near Bermuda is forecast to continue pumping warm, humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic, AccuWeather said.
Tropical storms and hurricanes that brew will get caught up in the flow around this high-pressure area.
“When we get a pattern such as this, we usually have two to three named storms in October and can have one in November or December,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially lasts until Nov. 30, but hurricanes have been recorded as late as New Year’s Eve.