‘Strong spending ’ in holiday forecast

After a rocky year filled with closures and bankruptcies, things may be looking up for retailers as they head into the all-important holiday season.

Consultancy Deloitte is forecasting retail sales — not counting cars and gasoline — will increase

4% to 4.5% from November to January. That will result in revenue of $1.04 trillion to $1.05 trillion during the period, typically the industry’s busiest and most lucrative.

Confidence in the economy likely is the key that will loosen the purse strings, says Rod Sides, Deloitte’s retail leader.

“The economy is growing pretty quickly, and we’ve seen savings rates really start to flatten out,’’ Sides says. “When that happens, that signals strong spending.’’

Online sales, whose growth is causing traditional retailers to invest heavily in e-commerce even as they frantically try to reinvent physical store space, are expected to keep surging. Deloitte is forecasting a spike of 18% to 21%, totaling between $111 billion and

$114 billion. Still, store purchases will continue to make up the majority of sales and are projected to grow between 2.5% and 3%, amounting to between $933 billion and $938 billion.

Those numbers reflect a retail industry that is still strong, Sides says, despite store closures by iconic chains such as Sears and Macy’s and a wave of bankruptcies, including Toys R Us.

“Retail is very healthy,” Sides says, calling the scores of closures announced in recent months more of a right-sizing than a death knell. “It’s not indicative of companies going out of business. It’s a question of balancing the portfolio to deliver to the customer … People are still shopping. They’re still going to stores.”