Here’s why you’ll continue to pay less for gas

Refining resumes after storms subside

You’ll probably keep paying less for gasoline despite new tensions in the Middle East driving up the price of oil.

American drivers have paid lower prices at the pump for five straight weeks, and the cost of filling up could soon slide back to levels last seen before Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

The fall is the result of a combination of things, including peak driving season winding down and U.S. refining returning to normal after storm-related disruptions.

Prices at the pump spiked after disruptions to Texas oil refineries caused by Hurricane Harvey, which hit

Aug. 25.

Last week, a gallon of regular gas cost $2.456, down more than

8% from the posthurricane high of

$2.673 on Sept. 7, according to GasBuddy.com.

The price trend probably will continue despite an increase of about 2 cents Monday to $2.478 amid fears of supply disruptions after Iraqi forces tried to seize oil fields in Kurdish-held Kirkuk in northern Iraq, an effort to prevent Kurds from creating an independent state in that part of the country. The confrontation pushed up the cost of a barrel of Brent crude, a benchmark for global oil prices, by 65 cents, or

1.1%, Monday to $57.82 a barrel. U.S.-produced crude, which has been on an upswing since falling into a low-$40-a-barrel range in June, rose 42 cents a barrel, or about 0.8%, to $51.87.

The effect of Middle East events on gas prices in the U.S. was limited by reports that oil flowed normally in the Kirkuk area. “We haven’t really seen any impact to global supply,” says Jeanette Casselano, a spokeswoman at AAA.

There’s a good chance gas prices will fall back to where they were before Harvey, says Patrick DeHaan of GasBuddy .com: “Gas prices are now slowly meandering to the downside.”