Islamic State is on the ropes, but big challenges remain
The rise of the Islamic State was spectacular and terrifying. From several hundred fighters in
2011, the terror group grew to nearly 30,000 who, with blitzkrieg efficiency, swept across the Middle East in 2014 to capture a land mass in Iraq and Syria the size of Indiana.
The new “caliphate” serpentined from near the Mediterranean almost to the gates of Baghdad, a wellspring of cruelty that subjugated 11 million people.
So the collapse of the caliphate — marked by the fall of its capital in the Syrian city of Raqqa and the liberation of money-producing oil wells in recent days — represents a remarkable victory for humanity over barbarity.
It’s also a testament to the U.S. military’s growing prowess with what it calls a “by, with, and through” waging of war: combat conducted by local forces, with U.S. and allied support, through an offensive plan designed by the American military.
On the ground, this meant young Army and Air Force commanders with iPads and apps and the power to call in coalition airstrikes. Supporting Iraqi security troops and Kurdish fighters, they liberated Iraq’s second largest city of Mosul in July. Embedded with Syrian Arab and Kurdish gunmen, they captured Raqqa last week. A commitment of
5,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and up to 1,400 in Syria rolled back a terror state at a cost of 31 Americans killed in action.
One dead servicemember is one too many, but compared with the thousands who died in the earlier Iraq and Afghanistan wars, it marks a welcome turning point in U.S. military tactics. President Obama, though slow to recognize the Islamic State threat, deserves credit for launching the effort to roll back ISIS. President Trump deserves credit for accelerating the campaign and giving ground commanders more authority.
In the wake of recent victories, however, a bewildering array of challenges remains:
Some 6,500 Islamic State fighters still hold out along the Euphrates River and the Iraq/ Syrian border, even as affiliates persist in Afghanistan, West Afri- ca, Libya and the Philippines. The elusive ISIS leader, Abu Bakr alBaghdadi, continues to be a fugitive from justice.
The threat from Islamic State-inspired “loan wolf ” attacks remains, as illustrated by the mass shootings in San Bernardino, Calif., and Orlando. The organization has moved to continue its terror from underground.
The civil war in Syria rages on. With swaths of the nation in the hands of U.S.-backed forces, the region awaits a broader U.S. policy regarding the future of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s brutal regime, which is supported by Russia and Iran.
Tensions are flaring in northern Iraq, tearing at the peace won by the liberation of Mosul. Following an independence referendum in the Kurdish north, Iraqi security forces last week seized the city of Kirkuk, clashing with Kurdish peshmerga forces.
Al Qaeda, the Osama bin Laden-led organization behind the 9/11 attacks, gathers strength with its rival’s defeat, consolidating its hold on northern Syria’s Idlib province, now the group’s largest haven since early days in Afghanistan.
This marks a moment to pause and celebrate the freedom of people who’ve been living under the Islamic State’s depredations for three years. But the wider battle against ISIS’ odious ideology is far from over.