U.S. and China are in a wary alliance
Analysts are mindful of Beijing’s rise in Trump era
BEIJING – Forget, for a moment, the prospect of war with nuclear-armed North Korea.
What about the prospects for war with nuclear-armed China?
As far-fetched as it may sound, some foreign policy observers fear the economic rise of China could lead to military conflict with the United States because of a phenomenon known as the “Thucydides Trap.”
“China and the United States are currently on a collision course for war — unless both parties take difficult and painful actions to avert it,” Harvard political scientist Graham Allison wrote in his book Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
Thucydides was an ancient Greek historian famous for his work on the Peloponnesian War, which he attributed to growing international rivalry: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
Some see China playing a modernday Athens to America’s Sparta — and the possibility of a Thucydides Trap has been top of mind for many of President Trump’s officials. Former senior adviser Steve Bannon, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and national security adviser H.R. McMaster are all well-versed in Thucydides’ work — and Allison was asked to speak on the topic with National Security Council staff in May.
This week in Beijing, Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping stressed good relations, insisting they want to work together to address problems ranging from trade disputes to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
“I look forward to many years of success and friendship, working together to solve not only our problems but world problems and problems of great danger and security,” Trump told Xi during meetings Thursday in Beijing.
Down the line, the United States and China could fall out on any number of is- sues, analysts said.
Trump said the trade relationship is “a very unfair and one-sided one” that steals jobs from Americans. There is no evidence that China will open its markets in a substantial way or refrain from what Americans call intellectual property theft from U.S. companies.
There is potential for a U.S.-Chinese clash over North Korean nukes.
Though Trump asked China and others to pressure North Korea into giving up nuclear weapons, he has not ruled out a military option. Even as it pledges to help Trump, China is an ally of dictator Kim Jong Un’s government and could object or intervene if Trump opts for force.
Then there’s the nature of the modern Chinese government.
Xi, who consolidated his power over the Chinese government in ways not seen since the days of Chairman Mao, proclaimed a “New Era” in which China “will take center stage in the world,” exerting its political, cultural, political and military influence.
The United States and its allies keep an eye on expansion of the Chinese military.
Regional allies, including Japan and South Korea, objected to activity in the South China Sea, where China built islands to use as military bases.
In short, the world is seeing “a new and even more aggressive and quite overweening China reaching out all around the world — sometimes in ways that conflict with the interests of other countries,” said Orville Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations with the Asia Society.
The U.S.-Chinese relationship is a complex one, and has to be managed very carefully — and the American president prides himself on being a maverick.
Trump sang the praises of Xi and China during his visit to Beijing, but he has criticized them over trade and a reluctance to tighten economic pressure on North Korea.
During his presidential campaign, Trump said Chinese trade policies “rape our country.”
China has criticized Trump for bellicose comments toward North Korea, such as calling Kim “Little Rocket Man.”
“This is a different president than we’ve been before,” Allison said. “His style is not exactly what you would choose for complex international bargaining.”
“China and the United States are currently on a collision course for war — unless both parties take ... actions to avert it.” Graham Allison