Controversy brewing?
CFP committee could be in no-win situation
Serving as a member of the College Football Playoff selection committee is an unpaid position, so keep that fact in mind when considering the acid and vitriol that committee members face from some of the most populous fan bases in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The recent goings-on within Tennessee’s athletics department suggest it’s not the most pleasant experience.
And it is unpaid, as noted.
So envy the job title and the seat at the big table, but not the responsibility — at the cost of sweat and time, the committee attempts to take on the challenge of settling each season’s contentious championship debate.
It’s inevitable that committee members will come under fire, led by chairman Kirby Hocutt, who wears the bull’seye every Tuesday evening.
It’s only going to get worse. Barring the status quo holding among this week’s top four — Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma and Wisconsin, in that order — the committee is headed for a potential no-win situation, one that will leave multiple programs griping over their exclusion from the field and fuel the annual calls for a shift to an eight-team postseason format.
Not that a clean sweep from the top four isn’t possible. Clemson will be favored in its matchup against Miami (Fla.), which dropped five spots to No. 7 after its loss to Pittsburgh. Likewise with No. 3 Oklahoma’s matchup against No. 11 TCU, though Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs will be better for their earlier experience against the Sooners offense. No. 2 Auburn rolled past No. 6 Georgia once and will be expected to do so again. Wisconsin has its detractors but does one thing better than any team from the Power Five leagues: win.
No. 5 Alabama and No. 8 Ohio State loom above the proceedings. Alabama had its clear path to the top spot but lost in the Iron Bowl, meaning the Crimson Tide enter the postseason without a division title, let alone the Southeastern Conference championship. This didn’t stop the Buckeyes from reaching the na- tional semifinals a year ago, but there’s a difference: Ohio State was the Big Ten Conference representative, thanks to Penn State’s two regular-season losses.
“It’s close separation from Alabama, Georgia, Miami, Oho State,” Hocutt said. “Those teams are close. Very little separation in the committee’s eyes for teams five through eight.”
Alabama won’t have that luxury. You can lock the SEC champion into the field, whether that’s Auburn or Georgia, and the Tide must hope for one dash of chaos to re-enter the top four. Likewise with Ohio State, which can eliminate Wisconsin from the mix with a win in Saturday’s conference championship game but still can’t guarantee itself a spot in the semifinals — like Alabama, the Buckeyes need help.
But an Ohio State win will lead to madness even if Clemson and Oklahoma hold serve against Miami and TCU, respectively. It would force the committee to weigh two of its favorites — the Tide and Buckeyes — in a head-to-head matchup of résumés, with Alabama touting just a single loss but Ohio State carrying the seal of a major-conference championship. Either way, one of college football’s premier brands will feel wronged, and perhaps rightfully so.
“Obviously, when we’re comparing like teams, that conference championship designation is very important,” Hocutt said.
And now imagine if Oklahoma loses. In one sense, Clemson losing to Miami doesn’t necessarily move the needle, since the Hurricanes would simply take the Tigers’ place in the top four. But if combined with an Oklahoma loss, it would muddy an already messy situation to the point where four teams could stake claim to the final spot in the field: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and TCU.
If this does happen — and ignoring the possibility would ignore the fact that college football has a strong tendency to run off the rails — you’ll hear a growing chorus pleading for an eight-team field, citing the unsettled nature of this year’s top four as evidence for a postseason expansion. In reality, this year’s Playoff push makes the opposing case.
There’s a reason the Buckeyes are No. 8 in the rankings: those two losses, especially the drubbing at Iowa that still leaves a sour aftertaste with the committee.
There’s a reason Alabama is on the outside looking in: The Crimson Tide didn’t even win the SEC West Division.
Neither team would have played their way into the Playoff; they’ll have backed their way in.
The scenario where just one of Oklahoma or Wisconsin loses will either leave a four-team field with two programs from the SEC, Alabama and Auburn, or two teams with multiple losses, Auburn and Ohio State. Expanding the format to eight teams doesn’t fix that situation; it makes it worse. This year, it might not be a matter of having too many qualified teams to fill out the field but not enough.
Expanding to eight teams might make things easier on the committee, on the other hand — though it’s not supposed to be easy. The group can hope for wins from the top four, praying that the eventual field of semifinalists is free of major controversy, but even that might not be enough. Alabama fans will call for the Tide’s inclusion.