Setting expectations for Tiger’s return
Tiger Woods is trying to temper the expectations for his latest return. Which is understandable, given that he hasn’t played a round of competitive golf since February and has made just three starts in two years.
It’s also probably unrealistic. Fair or not, the inclination anytime he tees it up is to see the Tiger of 2000, and all the chatter about how good his swing looks and how far he’s hitting the ball does nothing to discourage that. So let’s consider all the possibilities for Tiger 2017 and the realistic chances he has of reaching them.
Make it through the first round, playing back-to-back days and finishing a tournament
Some will scoff at such low bench marks, but nothing is a given for a man who’s had four back surgeries since 2014. He’s had to withdraw three times in his last 18 starts, including his last appearance, at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic.
Woods had spinal fusion surgery on his lower back in April and said Tuesday that he feels better than he has in years. Friends who have played with him recently have raved about his health and stamina.
“Looking back on it now, I look on it as playing in slow-mo, but that was as hard as I could hit it,” Woods said Tuesday at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. “I didn’t realize how bad my back had become and how much I was flinching and just how slow I was. I didn’t realize it because it’s been a slow degrading process. I thought I had some speed, thought I was playing halfway decent, shot some good scores, but now I’ve looked back on it and, man, I didn’t even have much at all.
“Now to come out here and be able to do what I’ve been doing the last few weeks with the guys, it’s been a lot of fun.”
But tournament golf is different from rounds with friends — even if they are some of the best players in the world — and this will be the real test of whether this latest comeback is built to last or will be short-lived.
Making the cut
Again, it’s a low bar. But consider that Woods hasn’t made the cut at a tournament since the Wyndham Championship in late August 2015 and didn’t make the weekend in three of his five starts before that. There is no cut at the Hero World Challenge, and Woods missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last year.
Woods said Tuesday that he hasn’t decided on his schedule beyond this week. But looking at what he’s done in the past, it’s logical to think his next start will be at the Farmers, which is Jan. 25-28 at Torrey Pines, one of Woods’ favorite courses.
Woods says he intends to use this week as a gauge for where his game is at. Then he can take the next two months to sharpen the areas that need it and, most important, get physically fit to withstand the grind on a regular basis.
Contending at a tournament
This is trickier. Even without his back woes, Woods will be 42 at the end of next month, an age bracket not exactly known for producing champions. Yes, Jack Nicklaus won the Masters at 46, and Vijay Singh won 22 tournaments after he turned 40.
But they are exceptions rather than the rule.
Power and stamina lessen as people age, and golfers are no different. How many times have you heard a 40- or 50something say he doesn’t have the distance to contend with the long hitters and even longer courses these days? And how many times has Fred Couples made a run at in the early rounds at Augusta National only to fade on Saturday or Sunday?
Now, Rickie Fowler did tell Golf.com two weeks ago that Woods was hitting it “way by” him, and Patrick Reed echoed that after their practice round Monday.
“I was shocked how fluid his swing was and how far the ball was going. He had some speed behind it,” Reed said. “He’s always been a little longer than me, but some of those drives today, he got it out there.”
But the PGA Tour is not a cakewalk, even if Woods can bomb it as he did in the days of old. There’s arguably more talent now than ever — think Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama and Jon Rahm, to name a few — and the Tiger they know is not invincible, a considerable psychological advantage over Woods’ opponents of his prime.
Again, this week will give a better indication — the field is a Who’s Who in golf — but it will likely take a thinnedout field and a friendly course for Woods to win again.
Winning a major
Not going to happen. Sorry. Woods is playing with a rebuilt back and hasn’t been at his best — or anywhere close to it, really — since 2013. Just coming back after all that will be victory enough.