Our view: Republicans will regret their tax cuts
Though many Republican lawmakers have doubts about the tax package working its way through Congress, it is easy to see why they see a yes vote on a final version negotiated between the House and Senate as a political imperative, no matter what’s in the final package.
To vote “no” risks a potential Republican primary challenge from President Trump’s base. A “no” vote could shut off the cash flow from angry GOP donors. And without some legislative success to point to, even an election in a safe seat could be difficult.
We won’t crystal-ball what happens in upcoming elections. But it is impossible not to see great danger in the GOP calculus at work here.
The tax measure is — to put it mildly — wildly unpopular. Just 32% of Americans support it, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll. Forty-eight percent oppose it. A Quinnipiac poll even found that voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans on tax matters, a substantial departure from previous attitudes.
As the polling blog Five Thirty Eight astutely noted, this tax cut plan is less popular than previous tax hikes. It is less popular than the hikes of 1990 that Republicans blame for President George H.W. Bush’s loss in 1992. It is less popular than the hikes of 1993 that hobbled Bill Clinton and fellow Democrats in 1994.
And it is considerably less popular than Obamacare, which heavily contributed to a Republican romp in 2010.
In fact, if there is a significant domestic law that was as unpopular at the time of its consideration, we can’t find it.
Republican lawmakers are not blind to this. They read polls. They know that these kinds of measures tend to get less popular once voters focus on what’s in them. And yet they gamely soldier on, talking up the bill as if in a dramatic reading of The Emperor’s New Clothes.
If it were not abundantly clear already, the tax bill shows how Republicans aren’t allowed to act in their own best interests, let alone the nation’s. That is because they are captive to a militant faction within the GOP, a coalition of the very rich and the very angry.
Congressional Republicans have already been forced into humbling reversals on trade, immigration, the values of a pluralistic society and — most noticeably — the importance of honesty and ethical behavior in high officials.
Now they are being forced to enact tax cuts for would-be heirs, private business owners and other wealthy individuals. These cuts would be financed by borrowing more than $1 trillion and (in the Senate version) by pushing up health care costs and reducing availability.
If and when a final measure passes, Republican lawmakers will declare victory and will go into the primaries with a sense of confidence.
But if they represent remotely competitive states or districts, they will have considerable explaining to do in general elections. They might wish they had come empty-handed rather than being burdened by a grossly unfair tax cutting plan such as this.