Alabama offers lessons for future elections
Black voter turnout, sexual allegations against Moore also were key factors
Doug Jones turned the political world on its head Tuesday night, winning a Senate seat for Democrats in Alabama, a state that hadn’t elected a Democratic senator in 25 years. Here are a few takeaways from his win over firebrand conservative Roy Moore:
Write-ins matter
Some prominent Republicans, including Alabama’s Republican Sen. Richard Shelby, suggested it was better to write in somebody else than to vote for Moore, who was tainted by allegations he had romantically pursued and sexually assaulted girls in their teens when he was in his 30s.
Tuesday night, the Alabama secretary of State tallied 22,780 votes for write-in candidates, though many may be discarded because they were not cast for a registered candidate. Jones beat Moore by fewer than 21,000 votes.
In 2016, Shelby won his re-election 64%-36% over a Democratic challenger, and there were fewer than 4,000 writein ballots. And that was a presidential year, so there were many more voters participating.
How much do Democrats stall?
With Jones replacing Republican Sen. Luther Strange in the Senate, Republicans go from controlling 52 seats to controlling 51, in a chamber that requires 50 votes to get anything done. Republicans are racing to get a massive tax cut passed before Christmas, and their majority has already been wobbly, with several Republican senators hinting they may not vote for the bill.
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill said on CNN Tuesday night he expects to certify the election results the last week of December; at the latest, the first week of January. So for Democrats and their leader Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, the question be- comes: Can they stall a final vote on the tax bill long enough for Jones to arrive and convert one critical “yes” vote into a “no”?
Black votes matter
The Democrats owe gratitude to the black voters who showed up and voted for Jones. Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report noted on Twitter Tuesday that turnout in heavily black counties was at three-fourths of what it was in the 2016 election. Wasserman said white voters in rural counties turned out at just more than half of the rate they did for the 2016 election. Those numbers are unusual, given off-year election turnout tends to lean Republicans.
When they showed up, they voted for Jones. The Washington Post’s exit polls found that 96% of black voters backed Jones.
This also is a win for Rep. Terri Sewell, the state’s lone Democratic House member, who organized a caravan of black leaders to come to Alabama to stump for Jones.
Journalism matters
Whether or not you believe the allegations against Moore, there is no doubt they had a dramatic impact on the election. Not a single public poll showed Jones leading Moore before The Wash
ington Post quoted Moore’s accusers on the record Nov. 9.
In the days afterward, there were more accusers, more stories of bad behavior by Moore and calls from senior Republicans for Moore to step aside. The news story changed the race.
The real Donald Trump
Late Tuesday, President Trump tweeted a subdued, congratulatory message to Jones. It certainly didn’t sound like Donald Trump.
Wednesday the old Trump was back, claiming he was right all along.