Elite meet in possible AFC title preview
Patriots, Steelers have been AFC’s best, but some other contenders stand between them and the Super Bowl.
There’s no question the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots have represented the AFC’s elite for much of this season.
It’s widely expected that those two, set to clash Sunday in Pittsburgh, will meet in the AFC Championship Game for the second consecutive season. I, too, firmly believe the rematch will materialize.
But a wacky 2017 season has proved it’s probably unwise to overlook anybody (well, anyone other than the Browns, and a few others). And despite their pedigree, the Steelers and Patriots have exhibited some signs of vulnerability.
The Jaguars, Chargers, Chiefs and Ravens, seem poised to make some noise down the stretch of the regular season and possibly the postseason. But do any have legitimate chances to upset the Steelers or Patriots? Here’s why they might, as well as why they might not:
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)
The Jaguars are one of the year’s most surprising teams, going from 3-13 in 2016 to a likely playoff squad this season. Jacksonville has victories over the Steelers, Seahawks and Chargers, and their early-season win over the Ravens now seems more meaningful. With the
top-ranked defense that also leads the NFL in sacks (47) and takeaways (30), Jacksonville has a chance to win against any opponent. So, if you had to pick an upset special, the Jags are your best bet.
It’s ultimately really hard to believe in Jacksonville because of its quarterback. A dozen current and former NFL talent evaluators, coaches and quarterbacks unanimously put Blake Bortles in the category of “needs replacing” when asked by USA TODAY to rate the league’s starting quarterbacks who are 30 or under. Despite 85.8 passer ratings and 16 touchdown passes to go with eight interceptions, Bortles has done just enough to keep the Jaguars’ offense going. But if Bortles is asked to engage in a late-game shootout with Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, Jacksonville is likely toast.
Los Angeles Chargers (7-6)
After a 0-4 start, first-year coach Anthony Lynn has guided his squad to a turnaround. Los Angeles is currently the eighth seed but can break a tie for the AFC West lead in Saturday’s matchup with the Chiefs. If the Chargers do prevail, they could cause problems. They’re the only other team besides the Eagles and Steelers to boast a top 10 defense and top-five offense. The Chargers have a mean pass rush (37 sacks, third in the NFL) and a veteran quarterback in Philip Rivers. Given how Brady has looked in recent weeks while battling an Achilles tendon injury, the Patriots would have to have some concern about facing a pass rush like that of the Chargers.
However, inconsistencies keep this squad in check. Outside a rout of the 7-6 Bills, the Chargers don’t have a win against a team with winning record. In a
21-13 loss to the Patriots in Week 8, the Chargers’ pass rush was held in check and recorded just one sack on Brady. The defense also struggles on third downs, ranking 19th in the league
(40.1%). Although Rivers ranks fourth in the league in passing, his offense is 24th in rushing. He also has never managed to top Roethlisberger or Brady when it matters most. For his career, he’s 2-3 against Pittsburgh (0-1 in the playoffs) and 1-5 against New England (0-2 in the playoffs).
Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)
The co-owners of the AFC West lead still have hope for the postseason after ending a four-game slide with a 26-15 win over the Raiders. With a résumé that features a 5-0 start and wins over the Patriots and Eagles, the Chiefs give you pause. Their offense featured one of the league’s most potent rushing attacks, and Alex Smith was leading the MVP conversation before the team’s midseason tailspin. Can this team get back on track and ride that momentum into the playoffs?
Their chances don’t appear to be great. Yes, they matched up well with New England early in the year. But that was before the Patriots defense had rounded into form, and opponents have recently found an answer for rookie standout Kareem Hunt and the rest of the Chiefs offense.
Baltimore Ravens (7-6)
They got off to a rocky start to the season while Joe Flacco worked to overcome a back injury. But the Ravens have won three of their last four games to enter the postseason discussion. They gave the Steelers quite a scare last week but couldn’t hang on in the 39-38 loss. With a defense that ranks second in the league with 29 takeaways and Flacco’s experience in big games, Baltimore is one of those teams you’d rather not face in the playoffs.
With games left against the Browns, Colts and Bengals, the Ravens seemingly have a good shot at overtaking either the Bills or Titans for one of the wildcard spots. But even if Baltimore does run into Pittsburgh again, the Steelers seem to hold an edge because of superior offensive weapons.
A matchup with the Patriots, however, would be interesting. Flacco owns a 2-2 record vs. Brady in the postseason.