Gruden’s potential return analyzed
TV analyst last coached on sidelines in 2008
It’s widely expected the Oakland Raiders will make Jon Gruden their next head coach, luring him out of the broadcasting booth and back onto the sideline he roamed from 1998 to 2001.
The charismatic Gruden would seemingly give the franchise the shot in the arm it needs after this year’s regression-riddled 6-10 campaign.
For eight years, Gruden has turned down advances from teams. But after his ninth season away from the game, he sounds primed for a return. Raiders owner Mark Davis’ pitch to Gruden includes ownership stakes, according to an ESPN report, along with a handsome salary.
We’ll see how this plays out over the next several days. But if/when Gruden does land this job, plenty of questions will remain, including these.
Does Gruden still have the edge?
Gruden brings a well-respected name and great football knowledge that’s on display during every Monday
Night Football broadcast. But talking from the booth is way easier than actually coaching. After nine years away, he no doubt has some rust to knock off. As Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells and George Seifert all showed, pulling off successful comebacks after an extended hiatus is challenging. That same mental edge it takes to thrive isn’t always easy to regain.
But at 54, Gruden remains youthful. And unlike Gibbs — who admittedly had to reacclimate himself to the game as well as figure out how to modernize his offense during his 2004 return after 11 seasons away — Gruden has remained plugged in while studying teams for his TV work. He has continued coaching on the side, running an offseason quarterbacks camp in addition to studying each young passer who enters the draft.
But the time commitment as a head coach is much more demanding than Gruden’s current work as an ESPN analyst. The same long hours can seem even more grueling after time away. If he’s jumping back in, Gruden obviously has considered this and deems himself ready for the challenge again. But he wouldn’t be the first coach to underestimate what it takes to pull off a truly effective second act.
Can he help Derek Carr and the Raiders offense?
Derek Carr was a rising star after back-to-back Pro Bowl selections. But he regressed this year under new offensive coordinator Todd Downing. One of Gruden’s primary tasks will be helping Carr return to form.
Gruden certainly knows quarterbacks. Rich Gannon had three of his four Pro Bowl selections and one of his two all-pro selections under the coach. Like Gannon, Brad Johnson and Jeff Garcia experienced late-career success with Gruden’s guidance.
The coach, with his quarterbackfriendly system and concepts, seemingly could help Carr get his career back on track.
But Gruden also must help recharge an Oakland offense that has struggled as a whole, going from sixth in the league in 2016 to 19th this season. Oddly enough, despite his success with quarterbacks, Gruden’s offenses have battled inconsistencies. After guiding top-10 offenses in three of his four seasons in Oakland, Gruden directed only one top-10 attack in seven seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Who will he bring with him?
Gruden presumably will serve as his own play-caller. But a quality position coach (Gannon is believed to be the top choice) is vital for further aiding Carr’s progress. Gruden has been reaching out to former assistants as he makes plans to assemble a staff, per multiple reports. However, Bill Callahan, who served as Gruden’s offensive coordinator in Oakland, is now coaching with Jay Gruden in Washington. Bill Muir, Gruden’s offensive coordinator from Tampa, is no longer in football.
Gruden’s potential defensive coordinator choices are also unclear. Whomever he tabs will inherit a unit in need of an overhaul while possessing few con- sistent impact players outside of Khalil Mack. Neither Ken Norton Jr. (fired midseason) nor John Pagano (Norton’s successor) managed to get enough out of this group. And that raises another question: How much say will Gruden have over talent as he works with general manager Reggie McKenzie to upgrade this team?
Did the Raiders satisfy the Rooney Rule?
The Raiders’ talks with Gruden have reached advanced stages, a person with knowledge of the situation confirmed to USA TODAY. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject. This happened with Jack Del Rio still at the helm. ESPN reported that it’s a sure thing that Gruden will be the next coach of the Raiders.
And that raises the question of whether the team satisfied the Rooney Rule and already conducted a meaningful interview with a minority candidate, as the rule stipulates. Interviewing Gruden and setting everything in place, then holding an interview with a minority candidate doesn’t satisfy the rule. That would be a violation. Of course, the Raiders could have already dotted their i’s and crossed their t’s regarding the rule.
It’s long been argued that while the Rooney Rule does produce some good, it’s still inadequate and too easy to work around. It will be interesting to find out how wholeheartedly Oakland brass followed the rule.
Is he a dramatic improvement?
Del Rio posted a 25-23 regular-season record with the Raiders, including a
12-4 mark in 2016. Patience ran out quickly this year. Now, ownership believes landing Gruden will prompt the desired long-term success.
However, it’s worth noting that although Gruden has a great reputation as a coach, he’s no Bill Belichick (.678 regular-season winning percentage, .722 playoff clip in 15 appearances, five Super Bowls wins), or even a Mike McCarthy
(.636 regular season, .556 postseason in nine appearances over 12 seasons, and a Super Bowl ring).
Gruden owns a .540 career winning percentage, his teams posting six winning campaigns in his 11 seasons as a head coach. He reached the playoffs five times. Outside his Super Bowl run in
2002, his teams are 2-4 in the postseason.
Following that 12-4 2002 season, Tampa reached the playoffs twice in six years and lost its first game both times. That prompted critics to at times diminish his work and say he merely inherited Tony Dungy’s Super Bowl-ready team.
If the Raiders are luring Gruden away from a handsome analyst gig with a supremely rich contract, their expectations are lofty. Gruden did take a 4-12 Raiders team and go 8-8 in consecutive years and then led the team to two playoff appearances before heading to Tampa, where he won the Super Bowl in his first season. But given all that’s going into this hire, it’s fair to wonder if Gruden can legitimately live up to all the expectations.
Jon Gruden has remained plugged in while studying teams for his TV work. He has continued coaching on the side, running an offseason QBs camp in addition to studying each young passer who enters the draft.