GOP retirements may boost Democrats’ chances in 2018
Republicans lose incumbent advantage
WASHINGTON – For Democrats hoping to win back control of the House of Representatives in November, the list of retiring House Republicans is opening doors.
This week, GOP Reps. Ed Royce and Darrell Issa of California became the latest to announce their retirements, creating an opportunity for Democrats in two districts Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
The two longtime House veterans would have probably faced tough reelection battles if they had run again, but they would have had the power of incumbency and funding in the pricey Los Angeles media market. Both survived Democratic challenges in the 2016 presidential election cycle.
Their announcements shook up projections for those races. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of both districts to “lean Democratic.”
“For as much as we like to say ‘America is sick of politicians,’ incumbents still have a proven advantage in elections,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “We have seven open Republican seats rated as either ‘toss-up’ or ‘leaning Democratic.’ Most, if not all, of those seats would be in a better category for Republicans if the incumbent was running.”
Republicans who are either seeking another office or not running for re-election have left 30 seats up for grabs in November, while Democrats left 15 seats open. Issa’s retirement announcement Wednesday broke the record of 29 open Republican seats, set in 2008, according to Daily Kos Elections.
There is plenty of time for more retirements to follow.
Republicans face a difficult political climate. A first-term president’s party typically loses seats in the midterm elections, and President Trump’s historically low approval ratings leave Republicans reason to be worried. Last year, Democrats picked up a Senate seat in a special election in Alabama and scored big wins in the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races.
House Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to win the majority in the House of Representatives.
“Trump’s approval rating is low enough that voters are basing their choice in the 2018 midterms on their feelings about him rather than Republicans, so we’re seeing very poor results in district-level polling, relative to 2016,” said David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for The Cook Political Report. “Democrats have been overperforming in special elections by about 9 points over where a Democrat should be in a normal year. There’s just much higher Democratic enthusiasm, and then all of a sudden, districts where Trump won by 5 points look a lot more shaky.”
Democrats have their own challenges in 2018. Among them will be defending three open districts that Trump won in Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada.
California’s unique primary election system could complicate matters. The state allows the top two vote-getters — regardless of party affiliation — to advance to the general election. If too many Democrats vie for Royce and Issa’s seats, they could split their share of the vote, leaving two Republicans as the top vote-getters.
Royce announced his endorsement of businesswoman and former State Assembly representative Young Kim to succeed him.
“The Democrats in California are dealing with brutal divisive battles between their candidates that will ultimately decide which direction their party’s going to go in, and that direction is going to be problematic when it comes to communicating a message to independent voters,” said Jesse Hunt, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
NextGen America President Tom Steyer, a billionaire environmentalist, announced Monday that he would pour $30 million into helping Democrats win control of Congress.