Low-profile players could prove key
The playoffs are a showcase for NFL stars, yet overlooked players or aspects often decide which team advances.
Here are two X factors for each team during conference championship weekend.
Jaguars at Patriots
Good Bortles or Bad Bortles: The Jaguars are built on defense and their ability to run the ball. That’s partially because QB Blake Bortles has been wildly inconsistent throughout the season. Including the playoffs, his touch-down-to-interception ratio is 18-to-3 in victories but 5-to-10 in defeat. Jags DT Malik Jackson: Against the
Steelers on Sunday, Jacksonville’s pass rush generated some big plays but couldn’t apply enough pressure to prevent Ben Roethlisberger from throwing five touchdowns. The key to disrupting Tom Brady and New England’s offense is to push the offensive line — especially the interior — into the pocket and disrupt Brady’s timing.
Been there, done that: This is the seventh consecutive season the Patriots have reached the AFC Championship Game and the 12th time overall during the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. However, the appearance will be just the Jags’ third since their inaugural season in 1995. This is a stage that can intimidate young teams and force them into the type of pressure-laden mistakes New England is unlikely to commit.
Quick release: Few passers get rid of the ball more quickly than Brady. When facing a Jacksonville defense that has elite speed and athleticism at each level, expect Brady to distribute the ball quickly in hopes his playmakers can exploit gaps or maybe take advantage of inexperienced defenders overpursuing the play.
Vikings at Eagles
Vikings S Harrison Smith: His ability to line up just about anywhere on the field presents a physical, game-changing presence. Smith is most comfortable near the line of scrimmage and could be a key figure in smothering TE Zach Ertz and Philadelphia’s running game. Eagles LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai: Filling in for injured Jason Peters, Vaitai has had an up-and-down stretch. His next matchup will come against star Vikings DE Everson Griffen, who collected 13 sacks in the regular season and one against the Saints in the divisional round. If Griffen can get to QB Nick Foles regularly, disaster could ensue.
Third downs: Minnesota shredded New Orleans on ever-crucial third downs, going 10-for-17 (59%). Though the Vikings needed a miracle touchdown at the end to win, if their offense can stay on the field, Philadelphia’s defense could tire with a high volume of snaps.
Turnover margin: The Eagles ranked fourth in the NFL in takeaway/giveaway differential (+11). But in the victory against Atlanta in the divisional round, Philadelphia gave up the ball twice, leading to all 10 of the Falcons’ points. The Eagles might not be so lucky if they’re careless again.