State of the Union comes at a crossroads
WASHINGTON – A president rarely has stepped forward to address a joint session of Congress at a more promising time. Or a more perilous one.
Tuesday night, Donald Trump can fairly boast that the State of the Union in many ways is strong, showing steady economic growth, historically low unemployment and a stock mar- ket that keeps breaking records. But it is also a time of grave danger for his presidency as his lawyers negotiate the ground rules for his interview with a special counsel investigating allegations of Russian collusion and obstruction of justice.
Not since Bill Clinton delivered his State of the Union Address in 1999, as his impeachment trial was underway in the Senate, has a president spoken amid such personal and political tumult. In his speech, Clinton decided to ignore entirely the scandal that threatened to end his presidency. (The Senate acquitted him a month later.)
Will Trump follow Clinton’s exam-
ple? Or will he repeat his denunciations of the Russia investigation as a “hoax” and a “witch hunt?”
That’s one of the things we’ll watch for during Trump’s first formal State of the Union Address.
1. Which Trump shows up?
Trump’s dark, defiant inaugural address last January left even the former presidents on the dais looking stunned. “This American carnage stops right here and stops right now,” he declared. He did nothing to acknowledge election rival Hillary Clinton, and he did little to reach out to voters who hadn’t supported him.
A different Trump showed up when he addressed a joint session of Congress a month later.
He was sunnier and more conciliatory — more “presidential,” some pundits said. “I am here tonight to deliver a message of unity and strength,” he said, “and it is a message delivered from my heart.”
Will the conciliatory Trump or the defiant one arrive at the Capitol on Tuesday?
2. What’s the agenda?
The State of the Union is an opportunity for presidents to outline their legislative goals for the year. Trump isn’t likely to read a laundry list of nuts-and-bolts measures, as some presidents have done; that’s not his style. White House officials said he will spotlight an infrastructure initiative and an immigration overhaul. Both were signature pledges of his during the 2016 campaign.
The immigration impasse contributed to a three-day government shutdown last week. Short-term funding runs out next week, when the whole debate could ignite again.
3. How does Congress react?
Congressional Republicans are all but guaranteed to cheer the president. Some congressional Democrats made their view of him clear by announcing they won’t show up.
Others plan to send a message without saying a word. Some Democratic congressional women said they will wear black outfits to protest sexual harassment and show solidarity with the Me Too movement. There’s a personal point: Trump has been accused of sexual misconduct.
4. What do Democrats say?
After Trump speaks, Massachusetts Rep. Joe Kennedy III will deliver the official Democratic response. Elizabeth Guzmán will give the Demo- crats’ Spanish-language response; in November, she became the first Hispanic female immigrant elected to the Virginia House of Delegates.
The choice of Kennedy, the scion of the dynasty from a solidly blue state, is a sign that Democrats want a partisan call to arms as they look ahead to the midterm elections in November.
5. Is that an elephant?
The elephant in the room, or the chamber, would be the Russian investigation. The inquiry by special counsel Robert Mueller into suspected meddling in the presidential election and possible collusion by Trump’s team has been a cloud over the president. That cloud has gotten darker after a series of developments, including a plea deal with former national security adviser Michael Flynn and the indictment of former campaign manager Paul Manafort.
Trump has denied participating in any collusion and has derided the idea that he obstructed justice. He has promised to cooperate with the inquiry, and he has insisted he is ready to be questioned under oath. But he has questioned the basic conclusion of U.S. intelligence agencies that there was meddling by the Russians, and he has blamed Democrats for ginning up what he calls a phony scandal.
“It will be tempting to label the Russia investigation a witch hunt and fake news, but he should resist,” says Aaron Kall, editor and co-author of The State of the Union Is ... Memorable Addresses of the Last Fifty Years.
At 9 p.m. ET Tuesday, we’ll find out if he does.