Expect New England’s stars to be the difference
MINNEAPOLIS – A breakdown of the matchups likely to decide Super Bowl LII between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.
When Eagles have the ball
On the ground: After averaging seven carries in his first four games following a midseason trade from Miami, Philadelphia RB Jay Ajayi has seen his workload double over the past five games, including the postseason, as he’s averaged 87.8 yards from scrimmage. While Ajayi is now getting the bulk of the touches, LeGarrette Blount remains the hammer in the red zone and rookie Corey Clement is available as a changeup.
After a rough midseason stretch, the Patriots have tightened the screws on opposing runners, allowing 72.5 yards, on average, in their past four games. They have intimate knowledge of exmate Blount’s abilities and are also quite familiar with Ajayi from his Dolphins days. EDGE: Patriots In the air: Perhaps Super Sunday’s X factor. Will Eagles QB Nick Foles use the conservative approach that worked well enough against Atlanta in the divisional round? Or will he attack down- field as he did against Minnesota, a team that allowed 13 TD passes in the regular season but got torched by Foles for three?
New England will be tested in coverage, with Eagles TE Zach Ertz posing problems at a near-Gronk level while WRs Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are capable of big days — especially since Foles has done such a good job of distributing the ball to the open man. EDGE: Eagles
When Patriots have the ball
On the ground: New England does a nice job leveraging the skills of a seasoned running back committee that includes Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead.
They ignited the offense through the home stretch of the regular season, averaging 138.2 rushing yards over the past six weeks. But that momentum didn’t carry over to the postseason, where the Pats have 147 total yards on the ground in two games. It’s not likely to get better against Philadelphia’s topranked run D, which has permitted 79.1 yards per game (including playoffs). EDGE: Eagles
In the air: This might be the game’s pivotal battle — four-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady and his array of targets against the Eagles’ pass rush. Philly’s Dline recorded 33 of the club’s 38 sacks in the regular season, and its effectiveness at creating pressure (aside from sacks) allows coordinator Jim Schwartz to use blitzes sparingly and keep more defenders in coverage. Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are elite players who manage to be highly disruptive. The Eagles’ depth should prevent the kind of fatigue that unraveled the Falcons last year.
But will Brady and Co. employ a hurry-up approach in a bid to hijack Philly’s substitution patterns? Might work. And Brady’s quick release could be deadly since the Eagles can be exposed when the pass rush doesn’t get home. Expect New England’s backs to be more dangerous in space than carrying the ball. WR Brandin Cooks, who’s excelled at drawing pass-interference penalties, could stretch the secondary while Danny Amendola works out of the slot. And assuming TE Rob Gronkowski is full speed, Eagles S Malcolm Jenkins and the linebackers will have their hands full. EDGE: Patriots
Special teams
The numbers don’t suggest either team should enjoy an advantage. But New England seems more likely to reap a big play from special teams aces Matthew Slater and Brandon Bolden and/or veteran returners Amendola and Lewis. And though Eagles rookie K Jake Elliott was a godsend after replacing Caleb Sturgis, fellow Memphis alum Stephen Gostkowski’s experience confers an advantage. EDGE: Patriots
Coaching
In his second season, Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson has earned a deserved reputation as an exceptional play caller. Seemingly against all odds, he didn’t allow former MVP front-runner Carson Wentz’s knee injury to derail what might yet be a magical season for a titledeprived town. But Pederson and his staff need look no further than last year’s Super Bowl film to know they’ll need the game plan of their lives and the requisite adjustments to outfox Bill Belichick and his staff. EDGE: Patriots
Prediction
Expect a close game — that’s usually how it goes for New England, whose five Super Bowl wins have come by a total of 19 points. But the superstar component Brady and Gronkowski provide seem likely to trump Philly’s advantage in the trenches. Patriots 24, Eagles 21