Predictions
ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will win: Oldman
Should win: Kaluuya Oldman, transformed into Winston Churchill, has picked up every major honor of awards season, and this Oscar, which would be his first in a storied career, is his to lose. But for a more emotional and nuanced performance, there’s Kaluuya as Get Out’s hero, a young black photographer lured to his white girlfriend’s family home for nefarious reasons. His tearful, haunting dip into “the Sunken Place” is Hollywood’s most enduring movie image of last year and worth a golden guy.
ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Meryl Streep, The Post Will win: McDormand Should win: Robbie McDormand also has blazed through the competition as Three Billboards’ fiery force of nature, a vengeful mom with an ornery personality and a obsessive need for justice. Barring an upset, she’s a lock, though even McDormand herself said in her SAG speech that “there’s a lot of young ones coming up and they need doorstops, too.” Of those, Robbie does the most with a high degree of difficulty, masterfully playing Tonya Harding over three decades and creating an empathetic portrayal of figure skating’s most infamous antagonist.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Woody The Florida Harrelson, Dafoe, Project Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will win: Rockwell
Should win: Dafoe
Oscar glory for Rockwell, one of the best character actors of his generation, is going to come sooner or later, and barring an upset, it’ll be for his portrayal of a racist cop who’s a little more dimensional than his dimwitted persona would have you believe. That said, Dafoe is the heart and soul of The Florida Project as a grumpy but kind Orlando hotel manager who juggles the chaos of his struggling residents and their misfit kids yet always has their best interests in mind.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Allison Janney, I, Tonya Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Will win/should win: Janney Of all the acting races, this one’s the no-brainer. In a category filled with memorable maternal figures, Janney is magnificent as Tonya Harding’s villainous and abusive mommy dearest. No curse word goes unused and no scenery is left unchewed by the actress, who takes over whenever she’s onscreen, whether dealing with a pesky parakeet or breaking the fourth wall.