Economists expect jobs report to pull back after February gains
Were February’s breakout job gains a sign that hiring is ramping up despite worker shortages or a weather-related fluke? The answer may be revealed in the March employment report, due this week.
Reports on manufacturing and service-sector activity, as well as consumer credit, will also be released.
Factory activity hit a 13-year high in February. Th result? A strong global economy and climbing oil prices that have revived drilling projects and related orders for steel pipes and other materials. There’s no signal that momentum has slowed recently. Economists expect the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) to announce Monday that its index of manufacturing activity edged down just a bit in March, indicating continued robust growth.
On Wednesday, ISM releases its latest snapshot of the service sector. That measure in October reached its highest level on records dating to 2008 and has hovered just slightly below that mark the past couple of months. Economists estimate ISM will report that its index of service-sector activity dipped in March but still showed healthy expansion.
The economy added a booming
313,000 jobs in February, the most since July 2016. That followed a strong
239,000 payroll gains in January. Nomura economist Lewis Alexander says unusually warm weather likely inflated hiring in February. A possible clue was outsize gains in industries such as construction and retail. As a result, Alexander expects the Labor Department on Friday to report a pullback in job growth for March. Yet economists overall figure the Labor Department on Friday will report that another solid
190,000 jobs were added last month. Sturdy job and income gains have generally supported steady consumer spending growth. Nearly nine years after the Great Recession ended, Americans also have become more comfortable using credit cards to finance their purchases.
Economists expect the Federal Reserve to report that after increasing
$19.2 billion and $13.9 billion the prior two months, outstanding consumer credit grew another $15 billion in January.