Trump open to North Korean nuclear disarmament in phases
Kim Jong Un unlikely to accept ‘Libyan model’
The Trump administration leans toward a disarmament approach that would force North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons in phases in return for sanctions relief and other rewards as specific targets are met, analysts said.
That move acknowledges that the “Libyan model” of requiring a country to dismantle everything at once is unrealistic for North Korea.
“All in one would be nice,” Trump said Tuesday, referring to a requirement that North Korea dismantle its nuclear program upfront. “Does it have to be? I don’t think I want to totally commit myself.”
Trump said there may be “physical reasons” why an upfront dismantling might not be practical. North Korea has a much larger weapons stockpile than Libya did, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would be reluctant to give it up all at once.
Trump made the remarks alongside South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who arrived at the White House to discuss a planned summit June 12 in Singapore between Trump and Kim.
Kim would expect some incentives, such as sanctions relief and investment, at the beginning, not only at the end when the nuclear program was entirely dismantled, said Patrick Cronin, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security.
“Kim realizes that is the only place for a deal,” he said.
Moon, who has pushed for reconciliation with North Korea, met with Trump to help prepare for the summit with Kim.
The meeting between Moon and Trump could be an opportunity to get the summit back on track.
“Whether or not it happens, you’ll be knowing pretty soon,” Trump said.
North Korea lashed out last week after national security adviser John Bolton referred to the “Libyan model” when talking about North Korean denuclearization.
Moammar Gadhafi dismantled his nuclear weapons program upfront in return for promises of sanctions relief. He was killed years later in a popular uprising aided by U.S. and allied aircraft.
Trump said the United States is not looking to Libya as a model for denuclearization. The Trump administration has said it does not seek regime change in North Korea.
Libya dismantled most of its nuclear program in months. Dismantling North Korea’s program and verifying its end would take much longer.
Kim views Gadhafi’s fate as the main reason for clinging to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
North Korea’s criticism of Bolton’s remarks signaled Pyongyang would not accept a unilateral denuclearization, analysts said.
“This outburst by the North Koreans was an indication that they wanted to reset expectations about what was achievable,” said Robert Einhorn, an arms control analyst at the Brookings Institution and a former State Department official who negotiated with the North Koreans in the 1990s.
“Kim is trying to take a hard-line position before he gets to the meeting,” Cronin said.
Even if the United States doesn’t demand entire dismantlement upfront, it would want North Korea to give up a significant chunk of its program, such as its ballistic missiles, as a start, Cronin said.
Finding a workable plan could take months or years of negotiations. “Summits are by nature sensational events,” Cronin said. “The hard work will have to follow.”
There are plenty of opportunities for disagreement to derail the process. The United States would demand a strict verification process that included inspectors with access to all nuclear sites. North Korea has objected to allowing international inspectors complete access to its nuclear facilities.
“I would give this whole process a 30% chance of working,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.