Separating baseball’s contenders, pretenders
On old baseball adage used to say the teams in first place on July 4 would win the pennant. Of course, that was well before the advent of five playoff entries in each league.
The current format for determining postseason berths, combined with our shorter attention span, demands a different approach.
So now that the season has passed another notable milestone in Memori-
al Day, here’s a look at which teams have legitimate aspirations to play in October, which are merely along for the ride and which are somewhere in between.
Shoo-ins
Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers.
The Astros offense has yet to shift into overdrive, but their rotation is the majors’ best, with a 2.44 ERA that’s a full run lower than anybody else in the American League. Houston has the makings of baseball’s best team.
The Red Sox and Yankees will likely be nipping at each other’s heels the rest of the season, with the loser having to settle for the crapshoot that’s the onegame wild-card playoff.
Washington has gone 12-6 since Anthony Rendon returned May 5, and the club is reasserting itself as the class of the National League. The season debut of second baseman Daniel Murphy should come soon.
The Cubs have been lurking in the NL Central, but their talent level and +77 run differential — twice as high as the front-running Brewers — suggests they’ll take over the lead at some point.
Starters Kenta Maeda and Walker Buehler are thriving for the Dodgers, who have won eight of 10 and welcome Clayton Kershaw back to the mound Thursday. They weathered the storm.
Strong contenders
Indians, Brewers, Braves, Angels. The bullpen’s wretched performance keeps holding the Indians back, so they’re lucky that in the AL Central a .500 record is more than enough for first place. Still, Cleveland badly needs Andrew Miller to return to health and form.
Brewers relievers have gone in the opposite direction, shaving nearly a run and a half from last year’s ERA to lead the NL with a 2.45 mark, making up for the starters’ 4.21 ERA. But how sustain- able is that bullpen work?
The Braves are breathing a sigh of relief now that the knee injury suffered by rookie phenom Ronald Acuna Jr. does not appear to be serious. He and leadoff man Ozzie Albies, who is tied for second in homers in the NL, have been the catalysts of Atlanta’s productive offense.
The Mike Trout-Shohei Ohtani show is lots of fun to watch, but to secure a wild-card spot the Angels will need the likes of Kole Calhoun (.391 OPS), Ian Kinsler (.511) and Zack Cosart (.707) to pick up the slack.
Fighting chance
Mariners, Cardinals, Phillies, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Mets, Giants, Rays, Minnesota Twins.
The Mariners have gone an AL-best 11-3 since Robinson Cano was sidelined by an injury, which was followed by a suspension for PED use. The emergence of James Paxton as a staff ace has proved a boon, but Felix Hernandez continues to struggle.
Improved starting pitching — a 3.02 ERA compared with 4.13 last season — has kept the Cardinals afloat during Yadier Molina’s absence, but they’ll need a strong return by their star catcher and for Matt Carpenter to continue his recent surge to make a move.
Under the guidance of rookie manager Gabe Kapler, the Phillies are authoring one of the best stories of the early part of the season at 29-22. Can the prosperity last?
The Rockies, Diamondbacks and Giants failed to exploit the Dodgers’ multiple injuries and consequent stumbles. Now all four are bunched together.
The Twins, sorely lacking in offensive punch, remain alive because the Indians haven’t run away with the dreadful AL Central. The Pirates, Mets and Rays, on the other hand, are finding out hovering around .500 doesn’t do them much good in their respective divisions.
Hopeless
White Sox, Marlins, Reds, Orioles, Royals, Padres, Rangers, Tigers, Blue Jays, Athletics.