Governors’ races see explosion in TV ads
Spending tops $132M as GOP fights to keep seats
WASHINGTON – Spending on television advertising to influence governors’ races has surged past $132.5 million this year as Republicans fight to keep their hold on more than two dozen seats, according to a USA TODAY analysis.
Spending from Jan. 1 to June 4 is nearly double the $69 million that candidates, parties and other groups spent at the same point in governors’ contests during the midterm election in 2014, according to estimates of broadcast television spending compiled by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group.
The big spending reflects the high stakes. Republicans dominate state leadership, controlling 33 governors’ seats, the highest number in nearly a
century. In November, the GOP must defend 26 of 36 seats to Democrats’ nine.
“Republicans are very exposed,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “You would expect that the number of Republican governorships will decrease because they control so many seats” and the president’s party typically loses ground in midterm elections “up and down the ballot.”
In past “wave” elections — the Democratic wave of 2006 and the Republican waves of 2010 and 2014 — the president’s party lost three to six governors’ seats. Republicans have more seats to lose this year than either party had in those past three elections.
For Democrats, November “is one of the biggest opportunities for gubernatorial pickups in generations,” said Jared Leopold, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association.
Among the competitive states seeing the most ads: Illinois, where multimillionaire Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner survived a primary challenge to face Democratic billionaire J.B. Pritzker, a venture capitalist and hotel chain heir, in November. Each is investing his own money in the race.
The outcome of competitive races from Nevada to New England could shape politics and policies for years to come. About two dozen of the governors elected in November will have the power to veto congressional and legislative maps drawn in once-a-decade redistricting after the 2020 Census.
“Defending 26 of 36 seats means we are victims of our own success,” said Jon Thompson, spokesman for the Republican Governors Association. “But that doesn’t mean we are not ready for it.” He said Republicans have the financial resources to compete — the Republican Governors Association has outraised its Democratic rival group by
$33 million in this cycle — and will benefit from strong economic growth in GOP-controlled states.
“Our Republican governors and candidates can run on a very pro-jobs and pro-growth message,” he said.
That strategy is playing out on the airwaves. Taxes, jobs and the economy rank among the top issues in Republican-sponsored ads in governors’ races in Illinois, Michigan, Connecticut and Maine, according to Kantar Media’s tally.
Democrats in competitive states emphasize different issues, including health care, gun safety and the environment.
In Florida and Nevada, where voters will head to the polls in Tuesday’s primary, gun control has emerged as a key issue for Democratic candidates. The states were sites of horrific mass shootings in the past eight months.
In Nevada, a gunman fired on a music festival in Las Vegas last October, killing 58 people and wounding more than 500 in the worst mass shooting in modern American history.
In Florida, a gunman terrorized students and teachers at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, killing 17 people and wounding more than a dozen on Feb. 14.
“The Democrats are clearly going to push the gun control issue,” said Eric Herzik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada-Reno.
Data from Kantar Media show that gun control was the No. 1 issue in ads run by Democrats in Nevada and the No. 2 issue — slightly below the environment — in ads run by Democrats in Florida.
The two main Democratic candidates in the Nevada race, Steve Sisolak and Chris Giunchigliani, are battling it out to show which one of them is stronger on gun control, Herzik said.
Democrats hope President Trump will be a drag on Republicans. According to the latest monthly tracking poll by Morning Consult, Trump’s approval ratings in the eight most competitive states in April include: 48% in Florida,
42% in Michigan and 45% in Nevada. Morning Consult does polls for Politico, Vox, Fortune and Bloomberg News.
“Voters want some balance to the chaos in Washington,” said Leopold of the Democratic Governors Association. “He (Trump) is certainly a great motivator for Democrats to go to the polls.”
Thompson of the Republican Governors Association said GOP governors have created their own distinct identities and run on their own records.
He pointed to strong polling for Republican governors up for re-election in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Massachusetts and Maryland.