Nominee gives the GOP a trade-off
Seating Kavanaugh may have long-term effects
WASHINGTON — Senate Republicans are approaching a high-stakes trade-off: Whether to confirm a justice who will solidify a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, perhaps for a generation, but at the risk of galvanizing the anger and opposition of women voters for years to follow.
Not to mention in six weeks, when the midterm elections are held.
Putting the 53-year-old Brett Kavanaugh on the nation’s highest court, replacing the justice who has been the swing vote between the court’s liberal and conservative wings, could have an ideological impact for decades. But the political impact of voting to confirm him despite a pair of sexual assault allegations could have short-term and long-term consequences as well.
The testimony by Christine Blasey Ford before the Senate Judiciary Committee, now set for Thursday, looms as the critical moment. Four in 10 Americans surveyed in a USA TODAY/Ipsos Public Affairs Poll last Wednesday and Thursday said they didn’t know whether to believe Ford’s chilling accusations of an attack or Kavanaugh’s unequivocal
denials that he was involved. Hearing her story and watching her tell it, and listening to him respond to the allegations, may well persuade many of the undecided one way or the other.
The undecided ranks in Washington are considerably thinner, and they divide along predictably partisan lines. President Trump on Friday called Kavanaugh a “fantastic man” who was “under assault by radical left-wing politicians.” He questioned why Ford didn’t report the attack at the time to law enforcement if it “was as bad as she says.” Meanwhile, Senate Democrats have lined up behind Ford. Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse warned that if Kavanaugh is confirmed, a new Democratic majority in Congress would launch an investigation into whether the new justice committed perjury, and Hawaii Sen. Mazie Hirono said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday that a criminal investigation by Maryland authorities was still possible even after confirmation.
That was all before a new allegation was reported Sunday night by The New Yorker. The second claim against Kavanaugh dates to his freshman year at Yale University, where Deborah Ramirez, now 53, alleges Kavanaugh exposed himself during a drunken party game.
Ford, now 51, has said that at a high school party in suburban Maryland in 1982, a “stumbling drunk” Kavanaugh pushed her onto a bed, jumped on top of her, groped her, tried to remove her clothes, and covered her mouth to prevent her from screaming for help. He was 17; she was 15. He has denied anything like that happened and says he is ready to refute her “false allegation.”
The parallels with the confirmation of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court in 1991 are eerie. Then, late-breaking accusations by lawyer Anita Hill of sexual harassment by Thomas created an uproar. In the end, Thomas was confirmed for the high court, where he still serves, but the furor also fueled the election of an unprecedented number of women in the 1992 election.
That said, the political landscape, and the calculation of who is credible in a he said/she said dispute, have changed in the past quarter-century, and even in the past year. This controversy has erupted near the one-year anniversary of the #MeToo hashtag going
This controversy
has erupted near
the one-year
anniversary of the
#MeToo hashtag
going viral on
social media.
viral on social media after explosive charges against Hollywood heavyweight Harvey Weinstein were made, and were followed by other accusations of sexual assault and harassment by powerful men.
This year, the number of women running for office already has broken every record.
In a sign of just how nervous Senate Republicans are about seeming dismissive or disrespectful to Ford, the committee has suggested hiring a female outside counsel to conduct the questioning. That’s rare: Senators typically are more than eager to have their own moment in the spotlight during high-profile hearings.
All 11 Republicans on the panel are male; four of the 10 Democrats are female.
“There’s a risk to either side if not perceived as being fair,” Republican congressman Trey Gowdy of South Carolina said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” On NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, of Washington, warned of the possibility of a “tremendous backlash” if Congress mishandles the allegations. “How the Senate handles this and the Senate Republicans handle this will be a test of this time, of 2018, in the #MeToo movement,” she said.
Republicans already had been braced for major setbacks in November’s congressional elections, in part because of eroding GOP support among college-educated and suburban women.
In three polls released over the past week — by USA TODAY, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and Fox News — a plurality op- posed Kavanaugh’s confirmation. The Fox News survey, out Sunday, found that by 50 percent-40 percent those surveyed wouldn’t vote to confirm him. No Supreme Court nominee has faced more opposition than support for confirmation in public polls.
Among Senate Republicans, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky assured the conservative Value Voters convention Friday that Kavanaugh would make it to the Supreme Court, and soon. “So my friends, keep the faith, don’t get rattled by all of this,” he told them. “We’re going to plow right through it and do our job.”
Despite that public display of confidence, however, the accusations already have upended Kavanaugh’s rapid timetable for confirmation. The Judiciary Committee vote was scheduled for last Thursday at a time his approval seemed assured, albeit mostly along party lines. That has now been delayed, and the chances of winning the votes of three Democratic senators up for re-election in red states, once seen as good prospects, have dimmed.
That puts the spotlight squarely on two moderate Republican senators, both women — Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — and on two retiring Republican senators who have said they want to hear from Ford, Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jeff Flake of Arizona.
Without Democratic support, Kavanaugh can afford to lose the support of one Republican senator. Not two.