Black Democrat seeks upset in Mississippi
Mike Espy hopes to be state’s first black senator since Reconstruction
WASHINGTON – Mike Espy is traveling across Mississippi, talking to voters at Rotary Clubs, churches and union halls.
Mississippi isn’t the only place he’s campaigning. The Democrat is crisscrossing the country, trying to convince donors and power brokers from New York to Chicago to contribute to his long-shot bid to become the first African-American senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction.
Raising money out of state is critical for Espy, whose core supporters in Mississippi’s rural communities lack the deep pockets to help him mount a robust challenge to his two Republican rivals. “I don’t have any choice but to go to those havens and those venues of people who are probably going to be Democrats, who are likely to find resonance with my approach and give to me politically,” Espy said.
Some political observers said Espy has a shot, but it’s an uphill battle in the ruby-red state, and his chances largely depend on boosting African-American turnout and capitalizing on the fierce battle between his Republican opponents.
“I hate to put a percentage on it, but I think it’s reasonable to discuss – there is a path forward for Espy to score an upset,” said Nathan Shrader, co-chair of Millsaps College Political Science Department. “If he can boost traditional Democratic turnout to look more like a presidential-year turnout than a midterm, then he’s in this thing.”
Espy, a former congressman and U.S. secretary of agriculture under the Clinton administration, is running in a special election to replace Republican Thad Cochran, who retired in April. Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, who was appointed to fill Cochran’s unexpired term, and state Republican Sen. Chris McDaniel are the other top contenders.
The nonpartisan contest Nov. 6 is likely to go to a runoff between the top two vote getters Nov. 27.
Espy said his campaign got a boost from the wins of other African-American Democrats in statewide races, including the gubernatorial bid of Stacey Abrams in Georgia.
It also helped that in neighboring Alabama, Doug Jones pulled off an upset last December to become the first Democrat in 25 years to represent the state in the U.S. Senate.
“We’re in a time when Republicans can’t take a lot for granted, particularly because if Democrats can win a Senate race in Alabama, they can hypothetically win one in Mississippi,” Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said. “The race is getting attention and probably merits attention.”
Espy traveled to Chicago and New York City for fundraisers, and this week in Washington, he will meet with potential donors in a supporter’s living room.
Espy said it’s hard to raise the money he needs in Mississippi, where the 19.8 percent poverty rate is the highest in the country. He hopes to raise at least $3 million. By the end of June, he had collected $408,236 and had $281,000 in his coffers, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Hyde-Smith had $1.4 million, and McDaniel trailed with $156,054.
Espy said fundraising picked up in the past month “as people see that the Democrats are doing better in Senate races around the country, as people begin to feel the urgency of the fact that control of the Senate just might depend on the results of this race.”
Espy asked Jones for campaign tips when they crossed paths this summer.
“I picked his very fertile brain, and I learned a lot from him, and I’ve hired a lot of his people,” Espy said.
In Mississippi, blacks make up nearly 38 percent of the population versus 27 percent in Alabama. Black voters helped Jones defeat Republican Roy Moore.
Espy not only has to convince blacks to support him, but, like Jones, must appeal to whites. Espy said he talks about issues important to all Mississippians, including access to affordable health care. “It’s not a hard sell because they all want the same thing whether you’re African-American or white or you’re concerned about rural hospitals closing,” he said.
Jones, who spoke this year at a Mississippi Democratic Party event, said Espy can win.
Mississippi Republican Party Chairman Lucien Smith said there won’t be an Alabama-style upset.
“I’m about as likely to grow wings and fly as Democrats are to win a Senate seat in Mississippi,” he said.
Smith said the party will unite behind whichever Republican makes the runoff. “We will fight till the last dog dies to make sure they win,” he said.
McDaniel said pundits give Espy far more of a chance than he really has.
“Mr. Espy was part of the Clinton administration, and that, in and of itself, is going to disqualify him for a majority of people in Mississippi,” he said.
Hyde-Smith’s campaign got a boost in August when Trump, who is popular in Mississippi, endorsed her. Trump plans to stump for Hyde-Smith at a rally Tuesday in Southaven, Mississippi. If elected, Hyde-Smith would be the first woman elected to represent Mississippi in Congress.
Hyde-Smith, who served as state agriculture commissioner, said her approach is “full steam ahead and staying on my priorities and my accomplishments and attributes and successes.”