Beer fear: Climate change threatens suds supply
Now this is getting serious. Worldwide, over the next few decades, beer could become more scarce and thus more expensive because of human-caused global warming, a study reported Monday.
The production of barley, the main ingredient in most beer, probably will drop substantially because severe droughts and heat extremes will become more frequent as the climate changes, the study says. “Average yield losses (of barley) range from 3 percent to 17 percent, depending on the severity of the conditions,” the study says.
Beer shortages could reduce the amount Americans consume each year by as much as 900 million gallons.
That’s (gulp) about 9 billion bottles of beer.
“Future climate and pricing conditions could put beer out of reach for hundreds of millions of people around the world,” said study co-author Nathan Mueller of the University of California-Irvine.
The study is the first to quantify the effect of climate change on beer, the world’s most popular alcoholic beverage.
“While the effects on beer may seem modest in comparison to many of the other impacts of climate change, there is nonetheless something fundamental in the cross-cultural appreciation of beer,” said study lead author Dabo Guan of the U.K.’s University of East Anglia.
Researchers used computer models to predict the possible effects of extreme climates on barley yields in 34 regions around the world. They examined the resulting barley supply shock on the supply and price of beer in each region under several climate scenarios.
On average, beer prices are likely to double as less barley becomes available, according to the study. One of the most affected countries would be Ireland – where beer prices could increase by as much as 338 percent by 2099 under the most severe scenario.