Rams no lock to go 19-0
Schedule and travel logistics, early clinching are X factors
It’s a (mythical) rite of autumn, members of the 1972 Dolphins preparing to convene (allegedly) in order to uncork a freshly chilled round of bubbly while celebrating another year as the lone club of the Super Bowl era to make it to the finish line with a perfect record.
In a purely historical sense, the ’72 Fins have almost nothing to worry about. Why?
Here are seven reasons the Rams will not go unbeaten this season.
1. Math
Since 1978, the year the NFL implemented the 16-game schedule, 1,233 teams have embarked on the quest for a perfect record, and just one — the 2007 Patriots — has even managed a 16-0 regular season.
That New England team infamously wound up 18-1 after being upset by the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. That means just 0.08 percent of all teams in that span have navigated the regular season without a loss, while the 19-0 mark remains wholly elusive.
(The ’72 Dolphins played a 14-game schedule and finished 17-0.)
2. Scheduling roadblocks
It’s easy to survey Los Angeles’ lineup of remaining games and see potential for a loss.
The Packers, Saints, Chiefs, Lions, Bears and Eagles all loom as worthy adversaries with more than a puncher’s
chance to KO the Rams.
3. Scheduling potholes
Then there are the pitfalls you don’t see until it’s too late. The 49ers (twice), Seahawks and Cardinals would all seem to be overmatched foes. But 1) it’s never wise to take divisional foes, familiar with your players and schemes, lightly and 2) #AnyGivenSunday. Seattle and Denver nearly knocked off the Rams the past two weeks. Remember when the lowly Bills crushed Minnesota in Week 3?
And consider this: Six teams have finished a regular season 15-1 — four suffered their lone setback to an opponent that didn’t reach the playoffs.
4. Travel
Since the Rams returned to the West Coast from St. Louis in 2016, they’re 5-5 in games played in London or the 1 p.m. ET window (though not necessarily in the Eastern time zone). No European vacation this year, but both of this season’s early games come in successive weeks: at Detroit (Dec. 2) and at Chicago (Dec. 9).
It is worth noting that either of those games could be flex candidates, especially if the Rams still haven’t lost.
5. Injuries
They’re already adding up. The Rams have two all-pro-caliber players on injured reserve (CB Aqib Talib, KR Pharoh Cooper), another nursing a groin issue (K Greg Zuerlein) and slot receiver Cooper Kupp is now battling a knee problem that will cost him at least one game.
6. Incentive
L.A. already owns a three-game lead in the NFC West, including a win over second-place Seattle (3-3). The only other team in the conference that has at least four wins is New Orleans (4-1), a team looming as the Rams’ primary competition for home-field advantage (the teams meet at the Superdome in Week 9).
But you get the picture. Assuming the Rams suffer no catastrophic injuries, they could easily find themselves fighting another tough enemy — complacency — on what’s shaping up as a smooth road toward a playoff berth and bye.
7. Sean McVay takes care of stars
With little to gain in last year’s regular-season finale, the Rams’ then- rookie coach rested his best players ahead of the wild-card round — a decision that almost surely cost Todd Gurley the rushing title and, maybe, league MVP honors. So be it, Gurley didn’t seem to mind.
McVay’s protection of his players, even at the risk of accumulated rust, was even more pronounced this August. Gurley, Kupp, QB Jared Goff, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Robert Woods and LT Andrew Whitworth were among those who didn’t play a single preseason snap.
So if the Rams are 14-0 heading into Week 16 — a scenario that presumes L.A. has beaten the Saints and, consequently, wrapped up the NFC’s top seed — what is McVay likely to do?
Would he keep the pedal to the metal those final two weeks against the alsoran Cards and Niners, teams sure to have players eager to make an impres- sion on future roster decisions for rebuilding clubs (perhaps at the expense of McVay’s established stars), or do what he did this summer, getting his main guys the work they need in practice — against better competition to boot?
The flip side of this argument is that a solid half ’s work might be enough to beat both Arizona and San Francisco — though the injury-depleted 49ers have remained highly competitive to date — while allowing L.A. backups valuable snaps elsewhere. But McVay might have to contend with some players in his locker room smitten with the idea of a Hollywood ending.
But this would be a good time to reference bullet point No. 1. Since 1978, only three teams (0.25 percent factoring out the 1982 strike season) have started 14-0.
Nah.