Both parties find positives in Florida
GOP took top spots; Dems had strong turnout
GOP won top spots in midterms, but Dems made gains at grass-roots level
The 2018 midterm election in Florida left Republicans (mostly) triumphant and Democrats (largely) reeling.
Republicans will occupy the three most prominent statewide positions, governor and both U.S. Senate seats, while Democrats have been left wondering how they lost races polls had them favored to win.
Now the focus shifts to 2020. Can the GOP maintain its momentum in the nation’s most important presidential swing state? Can Democrats regroup by building on some beneath-the-radar wins that could bear fruit two years from now?
Republican Ron DeSantis scored a win over Democrat Andrew Gillum for governor, and Republican Rick Scott unseated three-term Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson – two crucial victories for President Donald Trump as he prepares for his re-election fight in a state he narrowly captured two years ago over Hillary Clinton.
“There are silver linings and warning signs for both parties” looking ahead to
2020, said Susan MacManus, retired political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa.
For Democrats, the demographics of a more diverse and younger electorate are “working their way” in favor of a bluer state, she said.
For Republicans, the just-completed midterm elections showed how their effective turnout strategy could work again two years from now, she said. The six counties with turnout above 70 percent
– Baker, Collier, Franklin, Jefferson, St. Johns and Sumter – went for DeSantis over Gillum and Scott over Nelson.
Here’s why Democrats might bounce back in 2020:
Democrats gained seats in the state Legislature and in the congressional delegation, flipping seats in battleground areas such as Miami-Dade County. At the start of this decade, 19 of the 25 members of Congress representing Florida were Republicans. Come January, 13 of the 27 will be Democrats.
Better-then-normal turnout could portend trouble for Republicans in
2020.
Democrats traditionally struggle to turn out their voters in Florida and around the country. But they did a decent job of generating voter enthusiasm this year. Exit polls suggest minorities and young voters are energized over issues such as gun violence, immigration and health care.
Young voters made up about 6.8 percent of early and absentee voting in Florida. In 2014, they made up about 4.8 percent. The share of early voters 65 and older fell to 44.6 percent, down from 47.8 percent in 2014.
Hispanics favored Gillum and Nelson over their Republican opponents, and the Democrats each got about 54 percent of the vote, according to the exit polls.
Trump’s hard-line immigration stance has alienated many Hispanic voters, and that could be a problem for him in Florida in 2020.
Tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans who fled their home island after Hurricane Maria sat out November’s election, according to registration trends. But there is plenty of time for Puerto Rican voters who located to Florida to register, MacManus said. Trump infuriated many Puerto Ricans when he blamed officials on the island for the slow federal response to Maria and questioned the death toll.
Republicans have their own reasons for optimism:
Continued control of the Governor’s Mansion (and the Legislature) and now both Senate seats means Republicans will enable the party to promote an agenda that dovetails with Trump’s policies.
Having the governor in the state be from the same party is a “really, really big help” for a presidential candidate, because governors have powerful statewide organizations, said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Even though the U.S. House is in Democratic control, Republicans have a role to play, said Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Panhandle congressman who is among the president’s most ardent supporters.
“We need to defend an administration that’s going to be under constant attack,” he said. “If the Democrats are able to go up and down the court, scoring uncontested layups, it becomes very difficult for the president. I intend to play a lot of tough defense.”
Florida has a habit of backing presidential re-elections.
Since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first re-election bid in 1936, sitting presidents have won all but two of their reelection contests: Jimmy Carter in
1980 and George H. W. Bush in 1992. Trump considers the state a second home, given the presence of his Mara-Lago Estate in Palm Beach that he dubbed “the Winter White House.” That should mean plenty of face time with Florida voters.
Florida Republicans generally run a better turnout model.
Democrats attract third-party groups to the state to lead voter registration efforts a few months before an election. That can lead to a lot of signups but not always turnout. Democrats had more than 4.9 million voters as of Sept. 30, compared with nearly
4.7 million Republican voters, state records show. (That gap has shrunk in recent years as GOP affiliation rose).
“Republicans are year-round, neighbor-to-neighbor, more grass roots up than top down like the Democrats,” MacManus said.
“There are silver linings and warning signs for both parties.”
Susan MacManus Retired political science professor