Despite jitters, Americans keep buying SUVs, trucks

U.S. auto sales appear to have enjoyed a surprising, albeit slight, uptick in 2018, according to analyst estimates.

With automakers reporting their full-year and December sales on Thursday, analysts said the industry likely outperformed their original expectations despite concerns about a cooling global economy and rising interest rates.

Edmunds.com estimated full-year sales of 17.3 million vehicles, while Cox Automotive projected a “modest uptick” to 17.2 million. Sales totaled about

17.2 million in 2017.

Low unemployment, tax cuts and cheaper gas prices paved the way for the industry to deliver another strong year, according to Cox Automotive economist Jonathan Smoke.

“Consumers here are looking at their personal financial situation, and ... the data and the confidence right up through December suggest that they still assess that very favorably,” said Ford sales analyst Erich Merkle.

For December, Edmunds analysts projected a sales increase of 0.3 percent, while Cox Automotive predicted a 0.6 percent decline. Ford said the final industry sales performance for the month was about flat.

Either way, the industry appears to have achieved its fourth straight year above 17 million vehicles. At its trough this century, sales dipped to 10.4 million in 2009 during the Great Recession. The all-time record high was 17.6 million in 2016.

The year 2019 may not look quite as nice as the last several years. Stock market volatility is rattling investors, and rising interest rates are increasing the cost of car payments.

But Toyota general manager Jack Hollis said the industry remains in “pretty great” condition and would likely record total sales in the “upper

16” range in 2019. “If those concerns are out there, they haven’t in the short term affected behavior,” said David Christ, general manager of Toyota’s Lexus brand.

To be sure, some brands have taken a step back as passenger-car sales continue to struggle. Americans are buying SUVs, crossovers and pickup trucks at a steady clip, choosing roomier rides over cramped cars.

In 2015, cars represented 43 percent of sales, according to Cox Automotive. In 2018, it was down to 30 percent. About 1 in 2 vehicles sold in 2019 will be SUVs or crossovers, according to projections by car-buying advice site Edmunds.

In December, Ford and Toyota posted sales declines of 8.8 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. But Honda and Nissan outpaced expectations with sales increases of 3.9 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively.

Subaru continued its hot streak in the United States with an all-time record for the full year at 680,135 vehicles.