Time to separate best from the rest
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Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards are nothing to sniff at, but we’ll soon know who’s up for the real hardware.
Oscar season kicks into another gear Tuesday morning when the Academy Award nominations are announced, giving film lovers and experts alike snubs and surprises to drive conversation – and Oscar pools, naturally – right up the big ceremony Feb. 24. (At least there’ll be something to talk about other than the lack of a show host.)
Let’s look at the six major Oscar categories and break down the contenders from the pretenders.
Best picture
❚ The best: Although its biggest win to date is Lady Gaga tying for a Critics’ Choice best-actress honor, “A Star Is Born” is a shoo-in for a best-picture nomination, having already received nods from 11 different movie guilds, including an important one for SAG cast. Directors Guild of America nominees have all ended up in the race for best picture since 2012, which is good news for “Star,” “Roma” (which won Critics’ Choice best film), “Green Book,” “BlacKkKlansman” and “Vice.”
❚ The rest: “Bohemian Rhapsody” upsetting “Star” for best drama at the Globes and the Queen biopic being in the SAG ensemble category – another key bellwether – gives it a fighting chance to make the cut. The category can have up to 10 films, so SAG nominees “Crazy Rich Asians” and “Black Panther” have a leg up on the others clawing for the remaining spots: Producers Guild nominees “The Favourite” and “A Quiet Place,” as well as “If Beale Street Could Talk” (which got a Globe nomination for best drama).
Actor
❚ The best: Three of the five slots seem pretty set. Christian Bale (“Vice”) and Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) won acting honors at the Globes, Bradley Cooper is likely to make it in off the goodwill for “A Star Is Born,” and all of them are in the SAG actor category.
❚ The rest: Fellow SAG and Globe nominees Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”) and John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”) also are poised to make it in, though if one or both are snubbed, Ethan Hawke (“First Reformed”) and Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”) are potential dark horses. Or maybe retiring Hollywood legend Robert Redford (“The Old Man & the Gun”) gets one for the road.
Actress
❚ The best: Glenn Close (“The Wife”) has never won an Oscar in six tries, and a seventh is pretty much a lock. She unexpectedly upended Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”) at the Globes, and they tied for a Critics’ Choice award. Expect them to be joined by Globe winner Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) and fellow SAG nominee Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
❚ The rest: Emily Blunt’s (“Mary Poppins Returns”) chances aren’t practically perfect, but she could sneak into that last slot thanks to her SAG and Globe nominations. At the same time, Yalitza Aparicio could ride in off a wave of support for “Roma,” though don’t discount the appealing precociousness of Globe nominee Elsie Fisher (“Eighth Grade”).
Supporting actor
❚ The best: Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”) is the gold standard looking to run the table all the way to his second Oscar in three years, after winning at both Globes and Critics’ Choice. So, yes, he’s a safe bet here. Fellow SAG and Globe nominees Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”), Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”) and Timothee Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”) also have strong resumes to get to Oscar night.
❚ The rest: That final slot could be a toss-up between SAG nominee Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”) and Sam Rockwell (“Vice”), who won this category just last year. Still, Michael B. Jordan looms as a potentially popular choice, especially if “Black Panther” picks up a lot of academy love.
Supporting actress
❚ The best: With Globe and Critics’ Choice wins, Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) is definitely on a roll, though surprisingly she isn’t nominated for the corresponding SAG honor. Amy Adams (“Vice”) is, though, and she’s still looking for her first Oscar win (after five tries). Then there’s Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, because both women from “The Favourite” are likely here.
❚ The rest: A number of wild cards could make this one of the more intriguing categories. Maybe SAG nominee Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) lands here instead of best actress – or she could get double nominations, the first since Cate Blanchett in 2008. Or Globe nominee Claire Foy, though “First Man” hasn’t had much awards heat. Or Margot Robbie (“Mary Queen of Scots”), who also has a SAG nomination. Or Michelle Yeoh, an outside possibility if “Crazy Rich Asians” surges.
Director
❚ The best: Three or four Directors Guild nominees usually make the list, so count on Globe and Critics’ Choice winner Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”), Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”), Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”) and Adam McKay (“Vice”) to take up most of the nods. (Not working in Cooper’s favor: “Argo” star Ben Affleck was famously snubbed for a directing nomination, even though he had a DGA nod and his film went on to win best picture, and Clint Eastwood was the last actor/director to get double nominations in 2005 for “Million Dollar Baby.”)
❚ The rest: If there’s an odd man out from the DGA group, it’s Peter Farrelly (“Green Book”): Reports of him flashing his penis as a prank surfaced as Oscar nomination voting was underway; plus his film has proven controversial since opening in November. Worthy candidates waiting to fill any open slots include 2017 nominee Barry Jenkins (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”), Ryan Coogler (“Black Panther”) and Pawel Pawlikowski (“Cold War”).