One strike looms over dominant Clemens
At No. 3 in USA TODAY’s countdown of the top 10 candidates on the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot is Roger Clemens. At 56, he occupies an interesting space along the spectrum of retired stars: not quite a pariah yet far from being able to sign his autograph, “Roger Clemens — HOF.”
He is hardly hiding from public view but largely lurking in safe spaces. You’ll see him helping distribute 1,600 meals to Houston-area families in need before Thanksgiving. Or attending one of the many games his baseball-playing sons are competing in. His default response is to insist his inability to earn election to the Hall, almost certainly due to his links to performance-enhancing drug use via the Mitchell Report, does not consume him. That he’s fine either way.
❚ The case for: The odds are against any pitcher again producing as overwhelming a Hall of Fame case as Clemens. Beyond the record seven Cy Young Awards, he amassed 354 wins and ranks third all time in both strikeouts (4,672) and Wins Above Replacement (139). His somewhat pedestrian 3.12 career ERA, which ranks 216th all time, is counterbalanced by an adjusted ERA of 143, which ranks 12th and would rank sixth among current Hall of Famers. Clemens claimed seven ERA titles, five strikeout crowns and six 20-win seasons. Twice he struck out 20 batters in a game. He was an 11-time All-Star. And his career spanned several eras, beginning in the middle of a decade that saw a dearth of dominant starters, burrowing through several high marks of offense and the teeth of the steroid era.
❚ The case against: Baseball’s Mitchell Report gave names, dates and places to whispers that Clemens’ late- career renaissance was chemically enhanced. Clemens never equivocated in his denials of PED use, all the way through congressional hearings and, later, a federal trial that he lied to that congressional committee. Clemens was ultimately found not guilty on charges of obstructing Congress, making false statements in a deposition and perjury; he settled a defamation lawsuit that his former personal trainer Brian McNamee filed against him for an undisclosed sum to be paid by Clemens’ insurer.
Where does that leave Clemens’ Hall of Fame candidacy? For anti-PED absolutists, it remains a non-starter. For those more tolerant, it’s a little easier. Nothing in the Mitchell Report alleges Clemens used PEDs throughout his career. And his body of work entering the
1998 season, when McNamee alleges he first injected Clemens with steroids, was arguably Hall of Fame worthy already, with four Cy Young Awards and 213 victories.
❚ X factors: Clemens and Barry Bonds are more or less joined at the hip in their candidacies and have enjoyed upticks in support; Clemens made his debut at 37.6 percent in 2013 and rose to 57.3 last season. A change in the electorate is helping both players, but so, too, are decisions made by both the Baseball Writers’ Association of America and the Today’s Game committee. Last month, that committee elected very borderline candidates Harold Baines and Lee Smith. It’s likely DH Edgar Martinez earns induction this year.
❚ Consensus: That Hall call won’t come this year; Clemens is currently receiving 73 percent of support on publicly released ballots as curated by @NotMrTibbs, and both he and Bonds suffer significantly when private ballots are added to the total. But the path to 75 percent might be there.