Sweet 16 re-rank: Who’s the favorite?
We examine each of the survivors of the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend
Then there were 16. The NCAA men’s basketball tournament’s first two rounds trimmed the 64 teams, and those survivors will square off Thursday through Sunday in the regional semifinals and finals for a trip to the Final Four. Which of these teams has the best chance to cut down the nets in Minneapolis? USA TODAY ranks the Sweet 16 teams based on title potential.
1. Gonzaga (West 1 seed, 32-3): The Bulldogs’ high-octane offense has shown no signs of slowing down, blowing out Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor. Rui Hachimura (20.1 points per game, 6.6 rebounds) and Brandon Clarke (16.4 points, 8.4 rebounds) are versatile 6-8 forwards who are difficult to match up against. Hachimura was a first-team All-American, but it was Clarke who broke out in the ’Zags’ secondround win over Baylor, recording 36 points and five blocks. Mark Few has proved he can outcoach his rivals, best evidenced by the November win over Duke.
2. Virginia (South 1 seed, 31-3): The Cavaliers have the best defense, limiting teams to 55 points per game and holding Gardner-Webb and Oklahoma to 53.5 per game. This also is the best 3-point shooting team left(41 percent), though Kyle Guy went 0-for-10 from three against Oklahoma. The Cavs overcame a first-half deficit in their first game, which is an accomplishment after being upset by No. 16 Maryland-Baltimore County last year, and are playing with extra motivation.
3. Duke (East 1 seed, 31-5): The Blue Devils survived a game against No. 9 Central Florida that even coach Mike Krzyzewski acknowledged his team should’ve lost. That’s what happens when a well-coached team like UCF plays with urgency and forces Duke to shoot outside (Tre Jones was 1-for-8). Sunday’s near-upset showed how beatable Duke is, and it makes the Blue Devils’ title chances suddenly feel far more difficult. But Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett have the ability to step up in pressure situations.
4. North Carolina (Midwest 1 seed, 29-6): The Tar Heels looked like title contenders in the second halves during blowouts of Iona and Washington after coach Roy Williams made adjustments. But their first halves were a different story, with UNC trailing to 16 seed Iona at halftime. Luke Maye remains a consistent force, while point guard Coby White has blossomed into a star. Naz Little had 20 points and seven rebounds off the bench against Washington.
5. Florida State (West 4 seed, 29-7):
The Seminoles hammered Murray State to reach the Sweet 16 and continue their strong play late this season. Their only losses in the last two months have come to Duke and North Carolina. Leonard Hamilton’s team has size, starting with 7-4 Christ Koumadje. Leading scorer Mfiondu Kabengele, a 6-10 forward, has turned it up a notch in this tournament, averaging 21.5 points and 8.5 boards.
6. Texas Tech (West 3 seed, 28-6):
The Red Raiders’ profile has risen from a sleeper Final Four pick to one of the front-runners. Jarrett Culver has been exceptional, scoring 29 against Northern Kentucky, then 16 points with 10 rebounds against Buffalo, which was held to a season-low 58 points.
7. Kentucky (Midwest 2 seed, 29-6):
The Wildcats survived a scare against Wofford, advancing without leading scorer and rebounder PJ Washington, who is expected to play this weekend. Kentucky has improved perhaps more than any other team from November to March. It starts with UK’s freshman guards. Veteran Reid Travis has added an extra dimension since his return from injury, averaging a double-double (16 points, 10 boards) in the NCAAs.
8. Michigan State (East 2 seed, 30-6): The Spartans haven’t looked their best, struggling to put away 15 seed Bradley and turning the ball over 22 times in their win over Minnesota. But Cassius Winston gives them a chance to win any night, and big man Nick Ward is getting closer to playing at full health.
9. Michigan (West 2 seed, 30-6):
The Wolverines look like a title contender when they’re not playing Michigan State, which they lost to three times this season. Michigan eased past Florida in the second round, and coach John Beilein has elevated this team’s defense to the level it was as last year’s national title runner-up, only trailing Virginia in points allowed. The Wolverines get offense in a variety of ways, but point guard Zavier Simpson is the catalyst.
10. Purdue (South 3 seed, 25-9): The Boilermakers dismantled national champ Villanova by 26 points in the second round. Carsen Edward’s 42 points helped the All-American guard break out of a shooting slump and showed what a threat Purdue can be when its offense matches its defensive level.
11. LSU (East 3 seed, 28-6): With coach Will Wade suspended, the Tigers were considered vulnerable. But the Southeastern Conference regular-season champs beat Yale and Maryland and are gelling. Tremont Waters (15.1 points, 6.0 assists) leads four players averaging double figures, and 6-10 big man Naz Reid is an NBA talent who can ignite this team on both ends.
12. Houston (Midwest 3 seed, 33-3): The Cougars cruised through matchups against Georgia State and Ohio State, beating both by a combined 45 points. Corey Davis Jr. has been one of the biggest stars of this tournament, averaging 23.5 points and pouring in seven 3pointers over Georgia State.
13. Auburn (Midwest 5 seed, 28-9):
The Tigers have won 10 in a row, including an impressive, tempo-controlling win over Kansas in the second round and a one-point win against New Mexico State in the first round. This team lives and dies by the three. The backcourt of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown combined for 43 points against KU, accounting for nine of Auburn’s 13 triples.
14. Oregon (South 12 seed, 25-12):
The Ducks are riding a 10-game winning streak, and coach Dana Altman has turned them into a defensive juggernaut. Oregon looked dominant against Wisconsin in the first round and UCIrvine in the second. Kenny Wooten (seven blocks against UC-Irvine) and Payton Pritchard (averaging 18.5 points and 7.5 assists in the NCAAs) are major difference-makers.
15. Tennessee (South 2 seed, 31-5):
The Volunteers avoided tying the biggest meltdown in tournament history, letting a 25-point lead slip away against Iowa but winning in overtime in the second round. SEC player of the year Grant Williams had six points and an assist in OT. But in postgame comments, Admiral Schofield aptly summed up why the Vols are so low on this Sweet 16 list: “The way we started the game, that’s the team we win (with). The way we finished the game, we can’t have that.”
16. Virginia Tech (East 4 seed, 26-8): The Hokies played inferior opponents in Saint Louis and Liberty and didn’t prove much. The return of point guard Justin Robinson has been a huge boost, but it won’t be enough to replicate their February win over Duke when Williamson was out with a knee injury.