Upsetting end would be one shining finish
The calendar has turned to April, but that doesn’t mean March Madness is over.
The Final Four stage is set for Minneapolis with an unexpected cast, as No. 1 seed Virginia and No. 2 seed Michigan State were overlooked in their respective brackets and Auburn and Texas Tech survived the gantlet in their regions.
The theme of unpredictability always dominates the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, so here are bold predictions for the final weekend.
1. First-timers win in semifinal games. Both Texas Tech and Auburn reached the Final Four for the first time in program history, but that doesn’t mean they can’t cut down the nets in Minneapolis.
The Red Raiders have used a stifling defense to shut down some of the best offenses in the tournament and can ride the offense of Big 12 player of the year Jarrett Culver to get past a Michigan State team that has been turnoverprone at times in this tournament.
Auburn has been the tournament’s biggest bracket-buster, ousting three blue bloods in Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky. So it should come as no surprise that they’re capable of slaying down the tournament’s last remaining No. 1 in Virginia. But the reason this is a bold forecast has to do with Virginia’s ability to slow the tempo. Look for the dynamic Tigers backcourt of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown to speed things up, and their outside shooting will be key in managing against the vaunted packline defense of the Cavaliers.
2. Auburn wins it all. Brown and Harper combined for 50 points against Kentucky in the Elite Eight and coach Bruce Pearl’s team kept its winning momentum going despite its best big man, Chuma Okeke, out with an ACL tear. Okeke’s fill-in, Danjel Purifoy, hit two big 3-pointers and Horace Spencer’s block of a PJ Washington shot with 11 seconds remaining proved to be the difference-maker. The Tigers, winners of 12 in a row, have played with a chip on their shoulder all tournament and are a great example of a team peaking at just the right time.
3. We get several overtimes. The best part of a chalky Elite Eight was two overtimes and a combined margin of seven points between all four games. While the tournament might be lacking Duke, Kentucky and North Carolina, the two semifinal matchups have a better chance of going down to the wire than being blowouts. Minneapolis showcasing a few overtimes in three games would be a fitting end to all the madness.
4. The tournament’s won on a buzzer-beater like 2016. Remember when Villanova’s Kris Jenkins drilled a buzzer-beating, championship-winning 3pointer against North Carolina three years ago. It’s hard to forget, and in a year when buzzer-beaters have been limited (UVA’s tying shot against Purdue was the only true buzzer-beater), a
title game with a game-winner as time expired would perfectly cap off 2019’s March Madness.
5. The Most Outstanding Player won’t be who you expect. Gauging the history of the tournament’s MOP award winners, it’s often an unexpected X factor player — not the team’s best player — who excels on college hoops’ grandest stage. Last year’s MOP, Donte DiVincenzo of Villanova, is a prime example. The Wildcats’ sixth man went off for a career-high 31 points behind a barrage of 3-pointers, tenacious dunks and gamechanging blocks.
An unexpected MOP from each team this year:
❚ Matt McQuaid, Michigan State. The senior guard (9.8 points, 42 percent 3-point shooting) has been a vital part of this team’s Final Four run, and his 27point performance against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament title game is evidence of his breakout abilities.
❚ Matt Mooney, Texas Tech. The veteran guard transferred from South Dakota, where he averaged more than 18 points for two seasons. He has taken on more of a facilitating role for the Red Raiders this season but can break out when necessary — evidenced by his 17 points and five assists in the Elite Eight defeat of Gonzaga.
❚ Anfernee McLemore, Auburn. The 6-7 junior forward does a lot of things well for the Tigers, but rarely has he scored in double figures or been in the spotlight over his high-scoring teammates. That was also the case for Louisville’s Luke Hancock in 2013 when he became the first substitute to win the award. McLemore’s defensive prowess and playmaking at the rim could be the deciding factor.
❚ Mamadi Diakite, Virginia. The hero of the Cavaliers’ overtime win over Purdue for his game-tying buzzer-beater has been the team’s utility man all season, pairing up in the frontcourt with Jack Salt and making hustle plays around the rim that are game-changing. The 6-9 junior could win the award for his defense, as he leads the team in blocked shots and is an integral piece to the team’s pack-line, paint-protecting defense.