Forecasters make hurricane prediction

Thanks to weak El Niño, experts call for “slightly below average” season

After yet another catastrophic hurricane season in the USA in 2018, which featured such ferocious storms as Florence and Michael, top hurricane forecasters made their first prediction for the 2019 season, which begins June 1.

Thanks to a weak El Niño, experts expect a “slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season.” Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University – among the nation’s top hurricane forecasters – predict 13 named tropical storms will form, five of which will become hurricanes.

An average season has 12 tropical storms, six of which are hurricanes.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph.

Of the five predicted hurricanes, two are expected to spin into major hurricanes – Category 3, 4 or 5 – with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The group said there’s a near-average chance for major hurricanes to make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Klotzbach put the chance of a major hurricane strike at 39%.

Last year, Florence and Michael combined to kill more than 100 Americans and cost nearly $50 billion in damage, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, though storms sometimes form outside those dates.

The team predicts that 2019 hurricane activity will be about 75% of the average season. By comparison, 2018’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season.

Colorado State’s prediction in 2018 was good. Last year, the team predicted 14 tropical storms would form, of which seven would become hurricanes. In all, 15 tropical storms developed, and eight strengthened into hurricanes.

One of the major determining factors in hurricane forecasting is whether the USA is in an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern. El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. Its opposite, La Niña, marked by cooler ocean water, tends to increase hurricanes.

Another limiting factor: Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are slightly cooler than average. Hurricanes are fueled in part by warm seawater. Insurance companies, emergency managers and the media use the forecasts to prepare Americans for the year’s hurricane threat. The team’s predictions provide the best estimate of activity during the upcoming season, not an exact measure, according to Colorado State.