Oregon joins sport’s blue bloods in Tampa
The names are familiar: Connecticut. Notre Dame. Baylor. Geno Auriemma. Muffet McGraw. Kim Mulkey. The three powers of college women’s basketball — and their three head coaches, each a dominant figure in their own right — have combined for seven of the past nine national championships, five belonging to the Huskies.
Notre Dame has now reached the Final Four seven times this decade. After topping out at the Elite Eight across four seasons in a row from 2014 to 2017, Baylor returns to the Final Four for the first time since winning the national title in 2012. Meanwhile, the Huskies’ Final Four streak hits a dozen seasons, extending the longest streak in NCAA history.
And then there’s Oregon — in comparison the unproven newcomer, if that can be said of a program that under coach Kelly Graves had made back-toback Elite Eight appearances before this year’s breakthrough.
“I know one of the focuses this year was to get here to a Final Four,” Graves said. “We didn’t want to be an Elite Eight program, we wanted to be a Final Four program.”
It’ll be the Bears and Ducks in the first semifinal on Friday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) in Tampa, Florida, followed about two hours later by the Fighting Irish and Huskies. It’s Baylor’s ferocious, NCAA-best defense against Oregon’s scoring touch, paced by All-American and triple-double machine Sabrina Ionescu. It’s another rekindling of one of college basketball’s great rivalries: UConn and Notre Dame will tip off for the 50th time.
The Final Four will conclude on Sunday with either something familiar — another banner for the Huskies, Irish or Bears — or, should Oregon pull off two wins in a row, something new: a first-time women’s national champion for the second time in three years, joining South Carolina in 2017.
No. 2 Oregon (33-4) vs. No. 1 Baylor (35-1)
Baylor breakdown: The Bears’ defense ranks first nationally in opposing field goal percentage and second in rebounds per game. With four contributors in the frontcourt standing at least 6-2, including impressive freshmen in NaLyssa Smith and Queen Egbo, Baylor presents a formidable combination of physicality in the lane — no team blocks more shots per game — and on the boards. Senior center Kalani Brown (15.5 points) can dictate the flow on both ends.
“We’ve got our work cut out for us,” Graves said. “They’re not just tall; they’re skilled. It looks like sometimes they play volleyball with each other. They’re just throwing it up and over the opponents.”
And the Bears will lean on their size on offense: Baylor will play a high-low game, attempting to hammer the ball deep in toward the basket, in direct contrast to Oregon’s outside shooting. In comparison, the Bears entered the Elite Eight ranked 345th out of 349 teams in average 3-point shots made per game. Nonetheless, Baylor won’t deviate from the blueprint that made Mulkey’s team the best in the country during the regular season.
Oregon breakdown: The Ducks have perhaps the nation’s most impressive player in Ionescu (19.9 points), a box score-stuffing junior who was at her best in the Elite Eight win against Mississippi State. Even as Baylor focuses attention on Ionescu, the Ducks can lean on another three scorers in double figures and a lineup on the lookout from deep: Oregon ranks fourth nationally with 362 3pointers.
“It’s not going to be uncommon or uncomfortable for us to expect that and to see that,” Mulkey said.
Where the Ducks are at a severe disadvantage is in rebounding. While no slouch overall, Oregon ranks below the Bears in every meaningful category — so does everyone else, to be fair — and in particular when it comes to secondchance points.
Deciding factor: Oregon’s 3point shooting. Baylor will win the battle on the boards. Both teams will move in transition, with the Bears’ size belying their ability to get up and down the floor. Ionescu will shine. But the Ducks’ best hope of knocking off Baylor hinges on the team’s ability to continue its stroke from deep.
No. 2 Connecticut (35-2) vs. No. 1 Notre Dame (34-3)
Connecticut breakdown: The Huskies need a healthy Katie Lou Samuelson (18.5 points), though her lingering back issues didn’t prevent the senior from scoring 29 points to pace the Elite Eight win against Louisville. As the tournament progressed, UConn turned into a team that essentially goes only six players deep; losing just one, whether to foul trouble or otherwise, could be a major development in Notre Dame’s favor. But Samuelson and fellow guards Christyn Williams (11.5 points) and Crystal Dangerfield (13.7 points) might hold the key: Notre Dame has struggled this tournament defending the perimeter.
UConn isn’t the top overall seed; that would be Baylor. In fact, the Huskies weren’t the top seed in the Albany Region, with Louisville drawing the honor. The program hasn’t won a championship since Samuelson was a freshman, losing in the Final Four in each of the past two years. If not the underdog, UConn is not viewed as the favorite.
Notre Dame breakdown: Auriemma called Notre Dame “the best team in the country.” It’s hard to disagree. Start with the wildly talented backcourt pair of Arike Ogunbowale (21.5 points) and Jackie Young (15.1 points), two stars with sterling NCAA Tournament credentials — see as evidence the final minute of last year’s title game against Mississippi State. Inside, the Irish have 6-4 senior Jessica Shepard (16.8 points, 10.2 rebounds), a dynamic finisher and passer from the post. Overall, all five starters score in double figures. Notre Dame can beat you in any number of ways.
“If you look at their lineup, the amount of scorers that they have, experience that they have, just the quality of their players,” Auriemma said. “I think it’s a formidable task for us and I think for anybody to beat a team like that.”
Not that UConn will be taken by surprise. Few teams are as familiar with Notre Dame than the Huskies, across the course of a rivalry that dates before conference realignment and come Friday will see the two teams match wits for the third time in just over a year — Notre Dame knocked off UConn in overtime in last season’s national semifinals and the Huskies won a regular-season matchup 89-71 in December.
Deciding factor: The battle in the backcourt. Notre Dame’s guard play is superb. The Huskies have a sharpshooter in Samuelson and another pair of teammates capable of taking advantage of the Irish’s defensive liabilities on the perimeter.