Jockey decision could sway Derby morning line favorite

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – For Mike Battaglia, there’s one major question to answer before picking the morning line favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

“Who’s Mike Smith going to ride?” Battaglia said.

Battaglia has set the morning line for the Kentucky Derby each year since 1975 and will do so again for the May 4 Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

Battaglia said Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster, ridden by Smith and trained by Bob Baffert, likely will get the nod for favoritism in the Kentucky Derby. But Smith also rides Omaha Beach, who won Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.

After that race, Smith said he’ll weigh his options before ultimately having his agent choose which horse he’ll ride in the Kentucky Derby. Smith has two Derby wins, including last year with the Baffert-trained Justify.

“I think he’ll probably stay with Roadster,” Battaglia said. “But if he doesn’t ride Roadster, that says a lot. … The way Roadster finished up in the Roadster and jockey Mike Smith won an allowance race March 1, above, and the Santa Anita Derby on April 6.

Santa Anita Derby, I think if Mike stays on him he’ll probably be the favorite.”

He said Omaha Beach and Santa

Anita Derby runner-up Game Winner are other candidates for favoritism.

“It really depends on how these horses train, I think,” Battaglia said. “They’re all so close that the training is going to mean a lot. You always have to look at it, but I think it’s going to mean a lot more this year, for making the line at least.”

Florida Derby winner Maximum Security and Arkansas Derby runner-up Improbable round out his top five.

Trained by Jason Servis, Maximum Security is undefeated in four starts.

“He could be a freak,” Battaglia said of Maximum Security. “We don’t know how good that horse is. Everybody says, ‘Oh, well, he got away with easy fractions (in the Florida Derby).’ You just don’t see a horse with three sprints under him jump up and run a mile and an eighth like he did. That was huge.”

Darren Rogers, Churchill Downs’ senior director of communications and media services, noted last week that the uncertainty at the top of the division could lead to the highest-priced posttime favorite in Derby history. Lookin At Lucky set the record in 2010 at 6.30-1.

“That’s possible,” Battaglia said. “There are so many horses that are going to be grouped in that 5-1, 6-1, 8-1 range that, yeah, (the favorite) could be 6-1. It would not surprise me.”