Joe Biden could be the Jeb Bush of 2020

We can’t ignore the brutal undertow he’ll face

Asking Joe Biden to not run for president is like asking teenagers to abstain from sex. What else do you expect them to do?

Biden not only leads in most national Democratic primary polls, he tops President Donald Trump in nearly all head-to-head matchups. Still, the former vice president, 76, might want to consider an excruciating prospect: He could end up as this cycle’s Jeb Bush.

Through the summer of 2015, Bush placed at or near the top of primary polls. But as Trump rose, “low energy” Jeb! floundered so fast and hard that he’s now better known as a human punchline than the once popular twoterm governor of Florida. He ended up personifying everything the eventual GOP nominee pitted himself against: political dynasties, the Iraq War, speaking Spanish, complete sentences, monogamy, and detailed policy proposals the candidate actually read.

And Joe Biden could be even less suited for this political moment than Jeb was for his.

Of course, Biden is all of Mount Rushmore combined compared with Trump. The vast majority of Democrats, including me, would gleefully support him over Trump or Mike Pence. Yet it would be political malpractice, and voter delusion, to ignore the brutality of the undertow Biden’s about to encounter. And the people closest to him lack any incentive to be honest about what this could do to his legacy.

Yes, Biden’s high points tower over anyone who could be on the ballot in 2020. He wrote the Violence Against Women Act, oversaw the stimulus that prevented a depression, and got out ahead of President Barack Obama to lead on same-sex marriage. But Biden also has a nearly unparalleled collection of Achilles’ heels, all strategically located at the hinges that hold the Democratic coalition together.

There’s his connection to Delaware’s financial sector. When Elizabeth Warren was fighting bankruptcy law changes that “benefited credit card companies and hurt their customers,” she was fighting Biden.

There’s race. Biden not only played a key role in the 1994 crime bill that helped lead to mass incarceration of African Americans, he also was one of many Democrats of the past century who tried to neutralize conservative attacks by moving to the right of Republicans on issues like busing.

And there’s the #MeToo/Brett Kavanaugh era. Women deserve better answers from Biden on difficult questions. He has never explained his mishandling of Anita Hill’s testimony about workplace sexual misconduct at the confirmation hearing for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. More recent complaints about his overfamiliar touching of women, and some men, can’t be joked or wished away in a contest against a president who has made a mockery of consent.

At one time, Biden’s support for the Iraq War would have been the most disturbing thing about him, but he has become less hawkish. What’s most disturbing now is his politics. He trumpets nostalgia for bipartisan kumbayas when the only civil thing to do is ruthlessly oppose a GOP that has enabled Trump to rack up untold corruption.

Yet Biden recently called Pence “a decent guy” and swiped at Democrats who objected: “I get criticized for saying anything nice about a Republican. Folks, that’s not who we are.” This approach might work for a general election, especially in 1992. But it may also be why Biden lost two primary bids.

This is a candidate who by necessity has to argue that some good has come out of American politics over the past 40 years, because he was instrumental in nearly all of it. But as the twin crises of climate change and inequality approach irreversible tipping points, and the vulnerabilities in our political system are exploited by a wannabe authoritarian, what’s unreasonable is to expect, or even hope, that things will go back to the way they were.

Joe Biden represents normality. It’s a powerful lure. But I hope he understands that the 2020 presidential election will be anything but normal.

Jason Sattler, aka @LOLGOP, is a member of USA TODAY’s Board of Contributors and host of “The GOTMFV Show” podcast.