Measuring success for new 2019 coaches
Larry Coker won the national championship in his first season at Miami (Florida), nearly won another a year later and was fired four years after that. Nick Saban lost six games in his first season at Alabama. (You know what happened next.)
Successful coaching tenures aren’t made or lost in Year 1, even if how a debut unfolds can often foreshadow what’s to come. While all success is relative — eight wins might be a disaster for one program and cause for celebration at another — here are Bowl Subdivision first-year head coaches set to have the most successful debuts.
1. Eli Drinkwitz, Appalachian State
The Mountaineers will begin the season favored in every game but one, at South Carolina. Drinkwitz should maintain the Mountaineers’ stretch as an undisputed Sun Belt power. The potential sticking point comes on defense, where changes in personnel and coaching could lead to the sort of decline that means the difference between a conference title and a disappointing finish in the East Division.
2. Rod Carey, Temple
Carey’s preferred style of play fits into the Temple brand: physical, a little boring, definitely not flashy but eventually successful. He takes over a strong roster largely developed by new Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins, though key pieces remain from the Matt Rhule era. The Owls will again be Central Florida’s biggest foil in the American.
3. Les Miles, Kansas
The bar isn’t high. Miles has to not go winless. Not do anything embarrassing. Draw attention to a rebuilding program. Maybe win a game or two in Big 12 play. Make some waves in recruiting.
4. Ryan Day, Ohio State
Day will win the most games of any first-year coach while being held to the likely unreachable standard set by predecessor Urban Meyer, let alone the expectations that annually surround Ohio State. The good news: Day’s going to win. The bad: Day needs to win a Big Ten title and perhaps even reach the College Football Playoff for his first season to be viewed as an undeniable success.
5. Mack Brown, North Carolina
Mack takes over a program that looked worse in the standings in 2017 and 2018 than was the reality: UNC dealt with injuries and poor leadership as the Larry Fedora era limped to a close. It’s not unrealistic to project the Tar Heels to get to six wins if they can weather a tough start and develop momentum heading into the season’s second half.
6. Manny Diaz, Miami
This era of Clemson dominance has Miami firmly in the mix for second in the ACC. That would mean a finish atop the Coastal Division, which seems doable in the generic sense but far from a given. Diaz needs to settle the Hurricanes’ quarterback situation before September to get his first team in line for nine or more wins.
7. Chip Lindsay, Troy
The Trojans’ strength lies on defense, with a unit deep enough to be the best in the Sun Belt and one of the most consistent on the Group of Five level. There are unknowns at the skill positions on offense, Lindsay’s presumed area of expertise. The ex-Auburn offensive coordinator takes on a program set to contend for eight wins unless something goes awry, such as a poor coaching hire.
8. Dana Holgorsen, Houston
Holgorsen’s tenure will be nothing if not interesting, which isn’t a bad thing for a university and athletics department constantly in search of attention. Now, his first team will score points in bunches but give up yardage in chunks. Look for the Cougars to get to six wins but not top out beyond eight; a season short of bowl play would be less surprising than a conference title.
9. Hugh Freeze, Liberty
His redemption tour begins with a team that won six games and suffered two single-possession losses in 2018, the program’s first as a member of the FBS. The schedule as an independent program has difficult parts, including a stretch of four road games in a row across October and November, but the returning core and Freeze’s touch on offense should yield another season with bowl eligibility.
10. Gary Andersen, Utah State
Andersen’s return comes at a nice time: Utah State brings back a promising quarterback in Jordan Love and the bones of an elite defense. On the other hand, there’s little experience to work with at receiver and on the offensive line. Add in a fairly tough schedule — Wake Forest, San Diego State, LSU, Boise State and more — to get a team that will reach a bowl but not match last year’s success under new Texas Tech coach Matt Wells.