Opposing view: The president’s hardball tactics just might work

Smart negotiators don’t just let their counterparts take advantage of them with impunity. President Donald Trump knows this and has acted accordingly. If reports are true that the Chinese did reverse course on new commitments protecting U.S. interests related to intellectual property, competition policy and currency manipulation, the aggressive American response could well prove justified and effective, despite the obvious and well-documented risks to such an approach.

Best negotiation practice would normally warrant a more measured, behind-the-scenes approach to signaling displeasure with one’s counterpart, and only after clearly laying out a collaborative, mutually beneficial path forward. But in these unique circumstances, the administration could actually get what it wants and more quickly than its critics might think.

First off, by the numbers alone, China exports four times more goods to America than America does to China, so there is greater vulnerability on the Chinese side. The U.S. economy is strong, the next election is 18 months away, and Trump has told his base that he is going to play hardball on trade, so why not stand strong?

Second, by going against conventional thinking on a more measured approach, Trump presents the Chinese with a conundrum: Can they trust that he will now act rationally and not allow a broader trade war to take root? President Xi Jinping and his negotiators have to weigh whether Trump might truly believe he can win such a war without significantly damaging the American economy. This is where Trump’s reputation for being unpredictable and mercurial could play in his favor, causing the Chinese to blink and accept a deal that meets America’s interests better than the status quo.

Finally, even if the Chinese are not inclined to offer up any material concessions as a result of the penalties being imposed, Trump still has the ability to back off as he watches things unfold in the weeks and months ahead.