New shooters could win at big odds
Front-runners, closers will test Derby also-rans
In this most unpredictable and uncommon of Triple Crown seasons, what might the Preakness Stakes have in store?
The post position draw was completed Wednesday for the 13 horses in Saturday’s race at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Four are horses who’ll be running back quickly from the Kentucky Derby, while the others did not.
Improbable and War of Will, two familiar Derby names, figure to be the favorites of this bunch. They are the ones to beat, and they probably should be. Both have proved worthy and were in contention in the later stages of the Derby. But neither was able to make a serious push, with Improbable failing to make up ground and War of Will losing ground after ... well ... surely you know what happened.
The point is, they were each beatable by an early runner like Maximum Security, who was able to grab the lead and maintain it.
While Maximum Security is not running in the Preakness, there are several “new shooters” in the field that fit that profile of a horse that wants to be on the lead early and have been able to win races in the past.
A quick pace could also mean new challengers could also come from the back of the
pack, Country House-style, in this 13⁄16-mile race.
Who among these nine “new shooters” might take the second leg of the Triple Crown?
Here are five possibilities:
Alwaysmining
A Maryland-bred local favorite, Alwaysmining will be popular at Pimlico. So his opening odds of 8-1 will probably get bet down, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t an underdog story.
Trainer Kelly Rubley and jockey Daniel Centeno are hardly regulars in Triple Crown races, and Alwaysmining wasn’t even on the Kentucky Derby trail.
In that way, he is like those NCAA Tournament teams from smaller conferences that get seeded relatively high. They’re in the middle of a great season. You know they’re dangerous. You don’t want to have to play them. But you also can’t be sure how they’re going to do against a true powerhouse until they have to face one.
Alwaysmining has been running circles around the competition at Laurel Park since October, winning six races in a row by an average of 6 lengths. The most recent one was by 11 lengths at 11⁄8 miles. On paper and on tape, he looks fantastic. The times are good. This horse has proved he can handle the distance.
You could argue that Alwaysmining is similar to Maximum Security in style and background, considering that horse wasn’t your typical Derby runner either. This horse has also shown you also don’t want to let him get comfortable on the lead.
Warrior’s Charge
Another early runner with the ability to run away from fields when he gets in front, Warrior’s Charge (12-1) hasn’t been doing it for as long as Alwaysmining.
But back-to-back victories of at least 6 lengths were enough for Louisville-based trainer Brad Cox to send Warrior’s Charge to the Preakness alongside another of his runners in Owendale.
Maturing horses can improve, or decline, quickly during their 3-year-old campaigns. Warrior’s Charge needed four tries to get a maiden victory, finally rolling to a win at Oaklawn Park in March. He followed that up with an easy optional claiming win.
There are obvious handicapping concerns. He’s going way up in class. He hasn’t raced longer than 11⁄16 miles. He hasn’t proved he can win a race any way other than simply getting the lead and running away from everyone.
But the fact that he was able to do that could make him dangerous at a big price in the Preakness. Again, that’s how the horse that won the Kentucky Derby on the track was able to do it.
Bourbon War
The existence of similar front-runners like Alwaysmining and Warrior’s Charge in this field means that each of them could really want that early lead. That could create a faster pace or even a pace duel situation, which could tire out those horses and boost the chances for a late-running surprise.
Trainer Mark Hennig’s Bourbon War (12-1) probably needs a fast pace up front to tire out the leaders in order to close from the back of the pack, but he just might get that here.
Bourbon War hasn’t raced since a fourth-place finish in the March 30 Florida Derby, which didn’t have a swift pace. In the race prior to that, Bourbon War took advantage of quicker fractions ahead of him and closed to second, within a length of Code of Honor, who made the board in the Kentucky Derby.
Another Preakness runner back from the Derby, Win Win Win, made it to Churchill Downs with a jockey who closed similarly from way back in the Blue Grass Stakes. That jockey was Irad Ortiz Jr., who’ll be riding Bourbon War on Saturday.
Owendale
Cox’s other Preakness horse isn’t exactly a deep closer, but Owendale (10-1) did come off the pace to win the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland at 12-1 odds. That wasn’t enough to get Owendale in the Derby, but it did make him an intriguing horse to watch here.
Owendale had run well before, but he lost by 10 lengths to War of Will in February’s Risen Star Stakes. Improvement was needed, and it appears that has happened. Owendale’s Brisnet speed figure of 99 in the Lexington is better than the careerbest 96 that War of Will had in the Risen Star.
Anothertwistafate
The addition of Kentucky Oaks-winning jockey Jose Ortiz is a nice boost for a horse that hasn’t finished worse than second in his past five races. Anothertwistafate (6-1) has run his best on a synthetic surface, but he has shown good early speed while also seeming to like distance. He nearly ran down Derby horse Cutting Humor in a crazy fast race in March and was right behind Owendale at the wire in the Lexington.